Prediction Markets: Origins and Mechanics

Derek traces prediction markets from historical bets to Iowa Electronic Markets and the wisdom of crowds.

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Episode notes

As black rain falls from the smoke-choked skies of Tehran, the US and Israel continue their war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. From the start, Trump officials have seemed only to disagree on both the murky rationale and the objectives of their mission.

Meanwhile, the Military Religious Freedom Foundation has been flooded with reports of commanding officers rallying their troops with apocalyptic pep talks in which Trump has been anointed by Jesus to kick-off Armageddon. This should come as no surprise, given that Sec of Def Pete Hegseth, has been holding Christian Nationalist prayer and worship services in the Pentagon since last May.

Beyond the obviousness of this religious politics, Matthew looks at how Canadian PM, Mark Carney, supports Trump, and this war, while pretending not to, using deceptive language tricks that borrow from religion to blur the line between strength and values, power and principle.

But, hey, if you want to distract yourself from all this, Polymarket is a wonderful place to bet on who’s going to be bombed next. Derek breaks down how prediction markets have become a massively lucrative Rorschach-portrait of our times.

Show Notes

Troops Told Iran War is “Armageddon”

Hegseth Joined Drollinger’s White House Bible Study

Hegseth Hosts Christian Nationalist Doug Wilson at Pentagon Religious Service

The History of Prediction Markets: From Ancient Oracles to Blockchain Forecasting

A brief history of prediction markets: from papal elections to Polymarket

Three economists grabbed a beer. A multibillion-dollar industry was born.

A Primer on Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are booming. Why are their ads banned from the Super Bowl?

Scandals, prediction markets: Is 2025 a turning point for sports betting?

An Analysis Just Found Something Extremely Unflattering About What Happens to Users of Prediction Markets

Trump administration backs Kalshi and Polymarket as states move to ban prediction markets