The Odds That the Market Will Go Up or Down

When the market starts to behave almost in the opposite way, that's your signal that it's almost like all baked in. And again, the reason it's baked in is because the discounting mechanism is not right. So why didn't the market go down when the CPI was higher? Well, because everybody's already short. That's the discounting Mechanism. When they've over-discounted in the positioning, that's when I go the other way. It puts the odds that if I get it right, the payout is going to be much higher than if I getting it wrong.