Ep. 522: What Did You Learn in School Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
00:00
The Limits of Forecasting the Future Beyond the Current Quarter
This author takes this article in some winding directions, but I like some of these things. He says our ability to forecast the future beyond the current quarter is limited. We certainly cannot forecast the economic impact of a complex political event such as Brexit or the election of a new U S president. Too many future unforeseen events will intrude. But if you can forecast 90 days ahead, why not 120 days? Why not six months? Nobody can forecast a damn thing. The correct answer about the probability of a Le Pen victory is that I do not have the foggiest,. nor does anyone else.
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