Real Rates, Monetary Policy and Gold Outlook

Oil hits $112 as Trump vows to bomb Iran into the Stone Age — and the jobs data everyone's celebrating is hiding a collapsing labor market.

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Peter Schiff records from the British Virgin Islands, breaking down the latest economic data against the backdrop of the escalating Iran war. The March jobs report showed 178,000 jobs added — well above the 51,000 estimate — but Schiff argues the number is misleading, noting that 43% of new jobs were in healthcare, a sign of a sicker nation rather than a stronger economy. He highlights the weakest wage growth in five years at 3.5% year-over-year and the lowest labor force participation in five years at 61.9%.

Oil prices surged to $112 per barrel amid Trump's pledge to "bomb Iran back to the Stone Age" over the next two to three weeks, with the service sector PMI falling into contraction at 49.8. Schiff warns that stagflation is now undeniable and that oil-driven inflation will force massive government spending and money printing, ultimately crushing the dollar and sending gold well above $5,000. He criticizes Trump's economic lies, the Supreme Court's ruling striking down Liberation Day tariffs as unconstitutional, Warren Buffett's Fed praise, and growing redemption freezes across investment funds as signs of a brewing financial crisis.

Chapters:

00:00 Cold Open and Intro

00:54 Vacation Setup and Holiday Markets

01:52 March Jobs Report Breakdown

06:44 Stagflation Signals in PMI and JOLTS

08:53 Oil Spike and Fed Policy Link

17:02 Weekly Market Wrap Gold Silver Miners

21:33 Trump Speech War Escalation Fears

30:18 Aftermath Leaving Strait to Allies

32:27 NATO Exit Debate

33:39 Dollar Risks and Metals

34:11 Springsteen Boycott Rant

36:27 Liberation Day Reality Check

37:47 Tariffs Ruled Unconstitutional

40:52 Funds Freeze Redemptions

43:39 Buffett on Inflation Targets

47:05 Fed Enabled Covid Policy

51:31 Trump Polls and Midterms

57:55 Prepare and Buy Gold

01:00:30 Podcast Wrap and Travel

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