Polling and MAGA coalition shifts

Chuck Todd surveys a political landscape where multiple crises are converging on the Trump administration simultaneously — and none of them are going well. The Iran war, which Chuck reiterates is a war of choice, appears to be devouring Trump's presidency: the administration burned through nearly $6 billion in munitions in just two days, is sending contradictory messages of reassurance and escalation that appear designed to manipulate markets, and seems to be operating entirely by the seat of its pants. He warns that asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States, that energy markets are in turmoil as Iran deliberately tries to inflict economic pain, that the threat of stagflation and energy shortages is very real, and that Trump's threat to use the Fed to shape oil markets has alarmed economists. 

He argues that if Trump could undo the war he would — but this won't be Venezuela 2.0, because there's no opposition on the ground to coordinate with, you can't change a regime without boots on the ground that Trump won't commit, and if the regime simply survives, that counts as victory for Iran. Meanwhile, Trump naively buys Putin's claim that Russia isn't helping Iran with targeting, and that new polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war — with MAGA influencers notably against it even as older rank-and-file supporters stick with Trump. Beyond Iran, Chuck  hits the Ticketmaster settlement as proof that Trump talks a big populist game but the lobbyists always win, warns that a partial DHS shutdown risks snarling air travel and punishing the flying public while ICE has already been funded, and cautions Democrats not to overplay their hand on the shutdown.

Then, John Adams, editor of the Montana Free Press, joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that local journalism has been in crisis — and that saving it might be one of the most important things Americans can do for their democracy. Adams is on the show to promote Local News Day on April 9th, a nationwide effort involving 700 local newsrooms aimed not at fundraising but at spreading awareness. He traces the origin story of the Montana Free Press back to his appearance in the documentary "Dark Money", a story about outside money quietly trying to buy Montana politics at the local level with zero disclosure — and the journalists best positioned to expose it were losing their jobs. Adams argues the economics of local news changed drastically as advertising revenue collapsed and audiences became hypnotized by social media and smartphones, but that the need and appetite for local reporting never went away.

The conversation turns to the deeper consequences of local news deserts: the loss of trusted community voices created a vacuum that bred distrust in the national press, because people no longer had local "character references" — journalists they knew and saw at the grocery store — to anchor their understanding of how media works. Adams warns that the rise of AI-generated misinformation makes reliable local sources more important than ever, noting that while younger people tend to be savvier at spotting junk online, older generations are particularly vulnerable. They close by noting that strong local news doesn't just serve democracy — it helps local businesses target customers, creating an economic ecosystem that benefits everyone — and that journalism ultimately has to reach enough people to really matter, which is exactly what Local News Day at localnewsday.org is designed to help make possible.

Finally, on the day of the Mississippi primaries, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide races in Mississippi and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 Despite runoff, Dems shouldn’t get hopes up for MTG’s district

01:30 Bennie Thompson survives primary challenge in Mississippi

07:15 War of choice in Iran could devour Trump’s presidency

08:00 Administration messaging appears to be manipulating markets

09:30 We got both a message of reassurance and escalation on Monday

10:30 Administration seems to be operating by the seat of their pants

12:00 Administration has eroded trust in institutions for years

13:00 Eventually markets will stop reacting to government statements

13:30 Administration burned through nearly $6B in munitions in two days

14:30 Asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States

15:15 Energy markets are in turmoil, Iran wants to create economic pain

16:00 Threat of stagflation & energy shortages are very real

16:45 Trump threatens to use the fed to shape oil markets, alarming economists

17:30 Partial shutdown of DHS agents risks snarling air travel

18:30 When do Dems declare victory on partial shutdown? Noem was fired

19:45 ICE has already been funded. Shutdown punishes the flying public

20:30 Democrats need to be careful not to overplay their hand in shutdown

21:00 If Trump could undo the war, he would. It won’t be Venezuela 2.0

22:15 We’ve always paid to rebuild countries we’ve bombed

23:00 If the regime survives, that’s victory for Iran

24:15 Can’t change regime without boots on the ground, which Trump won’t do

25:15 There’s no opposition on the ground to coordinate with

26:00 Trump buys story from Putin that Russia isn’t assisting Iran w/targeting

26:45 U.S. using up munitions headed to Ukraine is best case for Russia

28:00 DOJ agrees to incredibly friendly settlement with Ticketmaster

28:45 Live Nation lobbyists went straight to Trump, then deal is cut

29:15 Trump talks a big game on populism, but the lobbyists always win

30:45 Young independents hate corporate power & Trump sides with corporations

31:30 New polling shows majority of Americans are against war with Iran

32:15 Older voters continue to be strongest supporters of Trump & war

33:00 MAGA influencers are against war, but rank & file support Trump

42:30 John Adams (Montana Free Press) joins the Chuck ToddCast

43:15 The importance of local news & purpose of Local News Day, April 9th

45:45 Why create Local News Day?

46:45 The crisis with local news isn’t new, been happening for years

48:00 It’s easier to get international news than news from your community

49:00 The need and appetite for local news has never gone away

50:15 Local news has become en vogue like a local craft beer

52:15 People embrace their local identity

54:45 Origin story of the Montana Free Press

55:15 “Dark Money” documentary about fight against Montana copper barons

57:30 Big outside money was trying to buy Montana politics at the local level

59:45 None of the outside money was disclosed

1:00:30 John lost his reporting job during the 2015 legislative session

1:02:30 Three of the most experienced local journalists were jobless

1:03:00 MFP founded on principle that local journalism is essential as a nonprofit

1:04:45 Economics of local news changed drastically, made newspapers expensive

1:06:30 Audiences are highly distracted by social media & smartphones

1:08:00 We need good new sources of information to combat misinfo from AI

1:09:15 Younger people are savvier online, older generations struggle with AI

1:11:00 It’s easier to trust local news sources because they’re in your community

1:11:45 Journalists have to almost “sell” their info for people to see it

1:14:00 It’s important to report on what your audience cares about

1:15:30 AP reporter in Montana was attacked and then the reporter was doxxed

1:17:45 Loss of local news character references created distrust in national press

1:19:00 Importance of local “service journalism”

1:22:30 Recreating the equivalent of morning drive news radio as a podcast

1:23:15 Using google trends questions to help inform your journalism

1:24:30 Algorithms only give people what they want, not what they need to know

1:25:15 Local news at its best reflects what the community cares about

1:26:15 Localnewsday.org is where people can find ways to help & connect

1:28:00 The better local news does, the better local businesses can target customers

1:29:00 700 local newsrooms are taking part in Local News Day

1:30:00 Goal of Local News Day isn’t to raise money, it’s to spread awareness

1:33:00 Journalism has to reach enough people to really matter

1:35:00 Take action on April 9th to support local news

1:35:30 ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Mississippi statewide campaigns

1:40:00 #1 1959 gubernatorial

1:42:00 #2 1978 senate race

1:43:30 #3 1978 gubernatorial

1:45:00 #4 1999 gubernatorial

1:47:00 #5 2014 senate Republican primary

1:49:30 Honorable mentions

1:52:30 Ask Chuck

1:52:45 Do you have a Top 5 list coming for New Jersey?

1:56:00 How do we keep getting into wars without declaration from congress?

1:59:30 What will it take for the U.S. to rebuild trust on the world stage?

2:03:00 Will abortion become an issue in 2028 or has Dobbs taken it off the table?

2:06:30 Should Democrats break norms to prevent authoritarianism?

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