Historical Analogs and Growing Pains

Noah Smith is an economist and author of Noahpinion, one of the most popular Substacks in the world.

He returns to Doom Debates to share a massive update to his P(Doom), and things get a little heated.

Timestamps

00:00:00 — Cold Open

00:00:41 — Welcome Back Noah Smith!

00:01:40 — Noah's P(Doom) Update

00:03:57 — The Chatbot-Genie-God Framework

00:05:14 — What's Your P(Doom)™

00:09:59 — Unpacking Noah's Update

00:16:56 — Why Incidents of Rogue AI Lower P(Doom)

00:20:04 — Noah's Mainline Doom Scenario: Much Worse Than COVID-19

00:23:29 — Society Responds After Growing Pains

00:29:25 — Agentic AI Contributed to Noah's Position

00:31:35 — Should Yudkowsky Get Bayesian Credit?

00:33:59 — Are We Communicating the Right Way with Policymakers?

00:40:16 — Finding Common Ground on AI Policy

00:47:07 — Wrap-Up: People Need to Be More Scared

Links

Doom Debate with Noah Smith — Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwmJ-OnK2I4

Noah’s Twitter — https://x.com/noahpinion

Noah’s Substack — https://noahpinion.blog

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