Imperial Decline: Historical Cycle Applied to US

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Simon Hunt to the show. Simon Hunt is Consultant on the Global Economy, China, and the Copper Industry. In this wide-ranging discussion, Hunt provides a comprehensive analysis of the current global geopolitical and economic landscape, focusing on the critical transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order. Hunt argues that the United States is experiencing a significant decline, similar to historical imperial cycles characterized by military overextension, debt accumulation, and internal societal friction.

He suggests that the emerging BRICS alliance, led by Russia, China, and India, is fundamentally challenging American hegemony. The potential for conflict between these powers is high, with Hunt predicting a possible war between 2028 and 2030 unless Washington adapts to a multipolar framework. A significant portion of the discussion centers on potential geopolitical flashpoints, particularly in the Middle East. Hunt suggests that any conflict with Iran would be strategically complex, potentially involving Russia and China, who have recently signed a tripartite strategic alliance with Iran. He believes the United States is unlikely to launch an immediate attack, given the potential diplomatic and domestic political consequences.

The conversation also delves deeply into economic trends, with Hunt highlighting the ongoing de-dollarization process. He anticipates China will play a pivotal role in this transformation, potentially announcing a gold-backed currency and participating in the creation of a new BRICS currency called the “unit” as early as 2024. Hunt predicts the Dollar Index could halve in value by 2030, potentially driving gold prices to $10,000. Regarding economic outlook, Hunt expects a significant economic correction in the third or fourth quarter of this year, driven by slowing global liquidity, credit cycles, and what he describes as fundamentally false economic reporting in the United States.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:57 – Global Trends Overview
00:01:41 – Ukraine Conflict Analysis
00:03:09 – Geopolitical Alliances BRICS
00:04:54 – Empire Decline Cycles
00:06:29 – US Debt Overextension
00:09:03 – Energy Control Wars
00:11:30 – Iran Gulf Stakes
00:16:17 – Military Buildup Assessment
00:21:11 – BRICS De-Dollarization
00:27:10 – Gold Remonetization Strategy
00:34:39 – Silver Copper Outlooks
00:38:50 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
E-Mail: mailto:simon@shss.com
Website: https://simon-hunt.com/
Report: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/

Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.

In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.

He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.

He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.

The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.

Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook.

Simon established this company in January 1996.