Dynasty's Rule for Betting on Year Two

Sometimes we draft rookies when we think their sophomore year situation will improve. If they don't produce their rookie season while their circumstances are poor, can they truly break out? Your model punishes players who don't produce as rookies like Jameson Williams and Khalil Shakir. Is there any precedent for players who we know will have better sophomore situations and then truly break out later? Or is the practice of betting on year two actually heavily flawed?