The Vanishing Starter Home Problem

Our guest this episode is Ron Butler — owner of Butler Mortgage and a 30-year veteran of the Canadian mortgage brokerage industry. Ron returns as a repeat guest after being a fan favourite when he first joined us back in episode #8. He’s widely known for his blunt takes on the housing market through social media and the Angry Mortgage Podcast.

In this conversation, Dave and Ron tackle the current state of Canada’s housing and mortgage markets — from what Ron calls “the Ontario real estate disaster” to his outlook for real estate in 2026. They discuss the looming shortage of new single-family construction, whether municipalities will have to cut development fees and why housing prices remain so high relative to incomes. Ron also explains mortgage basics, why using a mortgage broker can matter, the hidden risks of co-signing a mortgage and the growing issue of homeowners sitting on mortgages with little or no equity.

They also explore several major trends shaping the market right now, including the huge wave of mortgage renewals coming in 2026, the rise of extended amortizations, questionable behaviour in the private mortgage market and why moving homes is often far more expensive than people realize. Along the way, Ron and Dave discuss their thoughts on inflation, job security, the future of real estate investors and even how AI could begin affecting white-collar employment.

If you want a candid, big-picture look at where Canada’s housing market might be headed, this episode is packed with insight, strong opinions and practical perspective.

Show Notes

(00:00) Intro & Disclaimer

(00:55) Intro to Ron Butler

(02:32) Real Estate Market Update: The Ontario Disaster

(03:36) Is a Real Estate Crash Good for Young Canadians?

(04:42) 2026 Real Estate Forecast

(05:36) The Looming Crisis of No New Single-Family Construction

(09:03) Do Municipalities Have to Cut Their Development Fees?

(11:45) Mortgage Basics

(13:17) The Impact of the War in the Middle East on Mortgage Rates

(15:51) Housing is Still Expensive Relative to Incomes

(18:25) Inflation and Its Impact on the Bottom 50% of Income Earners

(23:55) The Hidden Dangers of Co-Signing a Mortgage

(25:23) Underwater Mortgages With No Equity

(26:22) Why Should Someone Use a Mortgage Broker?

(28:40) 2026 Will Be the Biggest Year for Mortgage Renewals in Canadian History

(30:04) Are Many Canadians Extending Their Amortization

(31:24) The Vanishing Starter Home: Why We Only Build Big

(33:47) Private Mortgage Misbehaviour

(35:20) Moving is Way More Expensive Than People Realize

(37:03)  The Collapse of Rural Real Estate as Offices Call People Back

(38:47) Are Lenders Concerned About Job Security?

(39:52) Are Real Estate Investors Going to Come Back to the Market?

(42:37) How AI Is Already Cutting White Collar Hiring

(44:03) Conclusion