Probability, Priors, and Bayesian Epistemology

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Live Call-In Show: Defending the Resurrection (Evidence, Hallucinations, Empty Tomb, Objections)00:00 Welcome + How the Resurrection Call-In Will Work00:58 10-Minute Case for the Resurrection: Cultural Background & Early Claims01:50 Early Sources, Creeds, and Skeptical Scholar Admissions03:33 Hallucination Hypothesis vs. Multisensory Group Appearances05:58 Empty Tomb & Women Witnesses: The Embarrassment Criterion07:10 Why Naturalistic Alternatives Get Ad Hoc (Wrap-Up of the Case)08:36 Super Chats, Banter, and Introducing the First Caller (Paul)10:17 Caller Paul: Exodus, Miracles, and How Jesus Uses OT Stories19:54 Caller Paul: Moral Objections to OT Violence + “Moral Progress” Framework29:15 Back to Resurrection: Probability, Priors, and Practicing Before Certainty35:55 Next Caller Kashif: “Miracles Can’t Happen” and Defining a Miracle39:49 Kashif’s Argument: Induction, Deduction, and Bayesian Replies49:29 Super Chats, Tattoo Moment, and Setting Up the Next Caller51:36 Agnostic Caller’s “Psychology Problem” With Resurrection Evidence52:53 Updating Beliefs vs Living in “What If” Anxiety (Science & Relationship Analogies)55:24 Gaslighting, Church Hesitation, and Pascal’s Wager as a Practical Tie‑Breaker01:01:37 Advice: Join a Church, Keep Studying—But Learn Epistemology First01:04:08 Super Chats: Resurrection Resources, Certainty, and Early Creeds Book Recs01:06:07 New Guest CJ: Pascal’s Wager, Bias Fears, and Historical Objections01:09:33 Tomb Veneration & Persecution: Why Sources Are Sparse01:11:57 Ascension as an “Auxiliary” Hypothesis + Bayesian Partitions & Priors01:27:29 Next Caller Jordan: Best Naturalistic Model, 1 Cor 15, and “Appeared” Debate01:37:32 Do “appeared” lists imply the same kind of encounter? (video-call analogy)01:38:14 What 1 Corinthians 15 can and can’t prove: early belief vs. physical sightings01:40:01 Using Acts to frame Paul’s Damascus-road experience (and what it implies)01:43:01 Skeptic pushback: ambiguous appearances, disputed later sources, and burden of proof01:51:29 Greek word study: “appeared” in LXX, visions vs. bodily appearances02:01:22 Host frustration & pivot: “we’re going in circles” + quick-fire audience Q&A02:05:57 New caller Dirk: is resurrection ‘causality-breaking’? Defining death and miracles02:11:36 The ‘four-day’ Jewish death rule & Lazarus: Talmud timing, Jonah, and swoon-adjacent debate02:19:03 Medical mechanics detour: crucifixion survival, spear wound, and tamponade claims02:20:47 Debate Meltdown: “He Was Dead on Friday” (Swoon Theory Shutdown)02:21:48 Rapid-Fire Q&A: Classical Theism, Original Sin, Presuppositionalism02:23:53 Resurrection & Natural Law: Thermodynamics, Crucifixion Lethality02:24:13 Caller XYZ: Hallucination/Lying Theories vs 1 Corinthians 15 Creed02:37:04 Caller Sortex: “Why No External Evidence?” Josephus & the ‘Gotcha’ Objection02:44:17 Caller Adrian: Romans 5 / Death Before the Fall—Redirected to Genesis Series02:47:14 Agnostic Caller: Is Denying the Resurrection ‘Reasonable’? Best-Explanation Debate02:54:24 Miracle Claims Comparison: Mormon Witnesses, Priors, and Epistemology02:57:17 Resources & Pastoral Wrap-Up: Book Recs, Discord Invite, Final Superchats03:01:15 Closing the Stream: Next Week, DebateCon Plug, and Support/Patreon Outro

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