Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down the unraveling of private credit and why retail investors were never suitable for these investments in the first place. He explains how private credit shops have quietly gained access to Federal Home Loan Bank funding through insurance company acquisitions — a taxpayer-subsidized arrangement he finds extraordinary and plans to investigate further. On markets, Chris argues liquidity will be the defining theme of 2026, with money rotating out of speculative and private assets back into public markets. He also flags early warning signs in consumer credit, names the specific companies to watch for deterioration, and explains why the mortgage market needs rates to fall further before any real pickup in activity. On precious metals, Chris details a seismic secular shift underway as India joins China in moving away from COMEX pricing toward Asian markets — and warns that if COMEX cannot deliver physical metal against futures contracts, it could be forced out of the business entirely.

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Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen

0:49 Private credit is unraveling — are retail investors about to run like Silicon Valley Bank

3:51 The insurance company play

5:20 Does the insurance and private credit connection create contagion risk

6:05 Nvidia beats but the market sells it — is the AI trade structurally broken

8:07 Why has the broader market held up despite the tech and SaaS selloff

9:00 Liquidity is the theme of 2026

10:12 Banks discussion

14:49 Mortgage market — 30 year rates dip below 6%, does it last

16:42 Will we see more rate cuts — Chris's expectations for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair

18:37 What it would take to unlock the housing market

20:34 Tariffs

21:50 The most important things for markets to focus on right now

22:36 Silver — COMEX and London are losing their role as price setters

26:36 Chris's portfolio — gold, silver, junior miners and why productive capacity matters

27:18 Viewer question — Basel III, central banks, and gold as a tier one asset

29:44 What Chris is watching and writing about next week

31:12 Where to find Chris and The Institutional Risk Analyst — 25% off for viewers