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Disrespecting the Tail (guest: Dean Curnutt)

The Market Huddle

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The Fed's Presence in the Market Makes It Hard to Know if Long Term Inflation Expectations Have Come Down

The Fed could end up in a Bank of England situation, where things have deteriorated so fast that there are counterparty issues and basis trades run amok. The risk off is bad enough such that long dated inflation expectations come down - but those aren't really problematic for the Fed right now. These numbers are contaminated by the Fed itself. But they could use it as an excuse.

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