TTU152: Where is the Open? ft. Toby Crabel
Top Traders Unplugged
Why Momentum Has Deteriorated
Toby argues momentum edges weakened because the market 'open' lost significance amid 24-hour trading and liquidity shifts.
Markets are not stable systems. They evolve, adapt, and quietly erode the edges traders rely on. In this episode, Toby Crabel reflects on decades of experience navigating that reality, from the early days of Opening Range Breakout strategies to today’s fragmented and highly competitive landscape. He explains why momentum behaves differently now, how liquidity has shifted across sessions, and why execution has become a defining edge. The conversation also explores the limits of AI, the persistence of technical principles, and the importance of adapting without overfitting. At its core, this is a discussion about humility, uncertainty, and staying relevant as markets change.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.
Find out more about DUNN Capital
Follow Crabel Capital Management on LinkedIn.
Episode Timestamps:
00:00 - Markets are probabilistic and inherently uncertain
01:40 - Introduction to Toby Crabel and his career
03:01 - From tennis to trading and early market exposure
06:10 - Opening range breakout and early momentum edge
08:04 - Why momentum strategies have deteriorated over time
14:21 - The disappearance of the “open” in modern markets
17:53 - Are markets changing or just the participants
20:34 - Liquidity events and large player behavior
24:14 - The role and limits of technical analysis
32:44 - Model decay and adapting systematic strategies
39:17 - Execution as a primary source of edge
40:40 - AI, automation, and the future of trading
51:18 - Effort vs result and the meaning of volume
56:56 - Are we entering a 1970s style macro regime?
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
