Exchange vs Withdrawal probabilities

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 3 of 2026 I look at the UK property market in the ‘UK Property Market Stats Show“ for the week ending Sunday 25th January 2026 (week 3) with the brilliant Steph Vass. YouTube https://youtu.be/496XoAgOVIU ✅ New Listings * 35.2k new properties came to market this week in week 3, up as expected from 32.8k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 30.6k. * 10-year week 3 average : 31.8k * Year-to-date (YTD): 96.5k new listings, 0.5% above than 2025 YTD (96.1k), 17.5% above 2024 YTD (82.1k) and 34% above the 2017–19 average (72k) ✅ Price Reductions * 20k reductions this week * 7.6% of resi homes for sale were reduced in December. Compared to Oct 12.8%, Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average was 12.8%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 24.6k homes sold stc this week 3, up expectedly from 21.2k last week. * Week 3 average (for last 10 years) : 23.4k * 2026 weekly average : 19.1k. * YTD: 62.7k gross sales, which is 8.7% behind Week 2 * 3 YTD of 2025 (68.7k), yet 23.5% ahead of wk.3 2024 (50.8k) and 30.6% above the 2017–19 average (48k). * Thoughts - January 2025 was an exceptional month as we had the stamp duty deadline for April 2025 - here it was a good sales month. To be ahead of 2024 and pre Covid years by such a amount is good to see. ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £413k * Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) last week was £348k * A 18.8% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%). ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 9.9% of homes on agents’ books went SSTC in December ’25. Down as expected from 13.5% in November, 15% in October, 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 4,783 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 482k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,100. * Fall-through rate: 25.8%, slightly up from 24.9% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * Huge jump in net sales from last week. 19.3k, up from 15.8k last week. * Ten-year Week 3 average: 18.2k. * Weekly average for 2026: 15.4k. * Weekly average for the whole of 2025: 19.2k. * YTD: 46.1k, which is 8.3% behind Wk.3 of 2025 (30.6k), 35% ahead of wk2 2024 (19.9k) and 40% ahead of wk2 2017–19 (19.1k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * December Stats : 60.2% of homes that left agents’ books exchanged & completed in December. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more December stats come in). * November 55.2% / October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. * Dec 24: 60.3% / Dec 23: 57.7% / Dec 22: 64.4% / Dec 21: 73.7% ✅ Stock Levels * 613k homes on the market on the 1st of January ’26 , down from 678k on 1st of December ’25 . (605k on the market on 1st Jan ’25 for comparison) * 434k homes in agent’s sales pipeline on the 1st Jan 2026, almost identical than 12 months ago on 1st Jan ’25 (439k). ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * December 2025 agreed sales averaged £337.09 per sq.ft. 0.6% higher than 12 months ago (£335.04) and 12.6% than 5 years ago (£299.30). The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in December 2025 - £1,702 pcm - compared to £1,719 pcm in Dec 2024 and £1,301 pcm in Dec 2017. * Available Rental Properties in December ’25 - 285k compared to 321k in November ’25. (Dec ’24 - 258k and Dec ’23 - 235k) ✅ Graphs https://youtu.be/496XoAgOVIU