Introduction

By most accounts, the Fed will hold steady after raising the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 5.25% at the beginning of May. A Reuters poll found that 102 of 116 economists thought the Fed was done raising rates this year, and 30 believed they would lower it.

With inflation down from its high of over 9% last year to 4.9% in April of this year, it might seem like the Fed should reverse course now. But as Michael Gapen, chief economist at Bank of America, noted, “Inflation is more than double the Fed’s target rate, and the unemployment rate is below every FOMC participant’s estimate of the natural rate.” 

Still, with inflation halving over the last nine months, several recent bank failures, and warning signs of a recession—that many, including myself, have been predicting for a year—still being present, there are a lot of reasons to think the Fed will begin reversing course on rates. If not at the end of 2023, then probably in 2024.

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