Forecasting product-led adoption

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Praveer Melwani, CFO of Figma, to unpack the financial model behind one of tech’s most iconic product-led companies. They cover viral growth, forecasting without a traditional sales pipeline, AI credit pricing, margin tradeoffs, and the metric Praveer believes matters most in the long run: free cash flow per share.

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SPONSORS:

EY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartupsSpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com

Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics

Aleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run

RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJ

Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj

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LINKS: 

Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN

Guest: https://www.linkedin.com/in/praveer-melwani/

Company: https://www.figma.com/

CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

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TIMESTAMPS:

0:00 Preview and intro

1:21 Welcome and guest intro

2:55 From banking to Dropbox to Figma

5:04 Inflection points: building trust early

8:36 TAM expansion thinking

10:31 Sponsors — EY | SpendHound | Brex

13:38 Two-thirds of Figma users aren't designers

14:36 Forecasting product led growth

16:22 Cohorts and NDR discovery

17:39 LTV to CAC philosophy

18:57 Product signals for account expansion

20:22 How Figma achieved hypergrowth with 90%+ margins

22:14 AI expands TAM: time to hit the gas

23:22 AI credit pricing model

24:50 Sponsors — Aleph | RightRev | Rillet

28:13 Outcome based pricing consideration

29:00 Where AI margins settle: gross profit dollars

30:08 Free cash flow per share as north star

31:04 NDR and pricing volatility

32:13 Bundled vs. unbundled seats

34:50 Being engaged in sales to understand admin pain

35:17 IPO day experience

36:27 Keeping employees focused beyond the stock price

37:19 Employee stock pressure and lockup reality

39:37 Kitchen cabinet of advisors

41:44 How to ask better questions of advisors

41:47 Lightning round

41:50 Advice to younger self

42:47 Finance software stack

44:09 Claude WTF moment: forecasting model throughput

45:13 Craziest expense story: the haircut

45:59 Credits