Interpreting recent US productivity gains

CEO of LB Macro Luigi Buttiglione explores whether the AI-driven productivity boom marks a durable shift in the global economy or the start of new financial imbalances. We discuss U.S. exceptionalism, neutral rates and monetary policy risks, leverage in the AI buildout, public debt sustainability, and Europe’s structural challenges. We also touch on geopolitical supply shocks and what they could mean for inflation and rates. Enjoy!

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Timestamps

(00:00) Intro

(02:34) Luigi's Storied Background

(04:10) AI’s Productivity Disruption

(15:50) Monetary Policy vs AI & Inflation

(18:21) Is the U.S. Still the Best Home for Capital?

(22:50) The Problems with the Europe Narrative

(31:42) Ads (Coinbase, Arkham)

(33:23) The Limits to Government Debt

(40:12) Private Debt, AI & Bank Regulation

(46:06) U.S.-Israel War with Iran

(51:04) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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