Why jobs data matters more than stocks

Paula explains why jobs and bond markets reflect the economy better than short-term stock moves.

Play episode from 02:37

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Episode notes

The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April -- and the numbers look solid on the surface.

But dig a little deeper and you'll find a tech sector in freefall, a housing market frozen in place, and consumer sentiment that hit a 74-year low.

This bonus episode breaks down the May jobs report, which came out a week late because the Bureau of Labor Statistics pushed its release from the first Friday to the second Friday of the month.

The job gains were concentrated in healthcare, transportation, warehousing, and retail. Healthcare alone added 37,000 jobs, driven largely by nursing facilities and home health care services for an aging population.

Retail gains clustered in discount stores and warehouse clubs - not department stores or electronics retailers - which tells you consumers are spending more carefully.

Tech got hit hard. The information sector lost another 13,000 jobs in April and is now down 342,000 jobs - about 11 percent - from its November 2022 peak.

People working part-time because they can't find full-time work jumped by 445,000 in a single month.

Consumer sentiment is at its lowest point in 74 years of University of Michigan tracking - worse than 2008, worse than the inflation of the 1970s.

One reason: gas prices. There's a psychological outsized effect to standing at a pump watching the total climb every week, versus an invisible mortgage adjustment buried in a monthly bank statement.

The housing market didn't get its usual spring bounce. Existing home sales ticked up just 0.2 percent between March and April. Inventory rose 5.8 percent, but at 4.4 months of supply, the market still needs roughly 30 percent more inventory to reach balance.

Median sale price sits at $417,700, up less than 1 percent year over year. Homes are averaging 32 days on market - giving buyers more negotiating leverage than they've had in years.

Timestamps:

(00:00) April jobs report: 115,000 new jobs, but tech takes a hit

(02:38) Jobs data matters more than the stock market

(03:14) Where jobs grew: healthcare, transportation,warehousing, retail

(05:14) Consumer sentiment hits 74-year low

(07:46) Why gas prices hurt more than other costs

(11:20) Tech sector down 342,000 jobs from 2022 peak

(11:52) Part-time workers up 445,000 in a single month

(13:38) Housing market: no spring rebound

(15:16) Inventory up, but still 30 percent below a balanced market

(16:16) Housing market frozen - not crashing, not skyrocketing

(17:13) Golden handcuffs: why sellers aren't selling