Seasonality and inventory timing risks

In this episode, Helen Amos and Joel Jackson discuss disruptions to fertiliser supply chains stemming from the Iran conflict. Nitrogen and sulphur prices have already seen huge gains (phosphate prices are rising too) with seemingly little slack in the system for a supply response to plug the gap. They discuss how this compares in scale with the onset of the Russia/Ukraine war in 2022, and what this means for mining operations dependant on sulphuric acid for leaching and ammonia nitrate for explosives.

⁠Click here for transcript.⁠

BMO clients can view our reports here:

⁠Fertilizer Stocks Reawaken as Conflict Intensifies⁠

⁠Middle East Conflict Supply Risk: Aluminium and Iron Ore Pellets Vulnerable⁠

⁠Mining Costs With Higher Oil; What Are The Sensitivities?⁠

⁠BMO Special Event: Commodities: Middle East Conflict⁠

⁠First Attempt to Quantify Current Conflict, Comping to 2022 (and Even 2008)⁠⁠Another Week of War Escalation and Duration -Driven Volatility⁠

⁠Fertilizer and Methanol Impacts From Middle East and Iran Developments⁠

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