Supply, owner behaviour and development challenges

In this episode of Inside Commercial Property, host Phil Tarrant sits down with Scott O’Neill, CEO of Rethink Group, to review the performance of the Australian commercial property market in 2025 and unpack what investors should be preparing for as the market moves into 2026. This in-depth discussion revisits early-year predictions and holds them to account, analysing how interest rate cuts, supply shortages, lending conditions and investor sentiment shaped outcomes across key asset classes, including retail property, industrial property, and office assets. Drawing on insights from hundreds of transactions completed throughout the year, Scott provides a ground-level view of how capital has actually been deployed in the commercial market. Key commercial property trends from 2025 The episode explores why large format retail and neighbourhood shopping centres emerged as some of the strongest-performing commercial asset classes, supported by yield appeal, limited new supply, and resilient tenant demand. Scott also explains how secondary industrial assets continued to outperform prime industrial stock, driven by higher yields, owner-occupier demand, and replacement cost pressures. Office markets are also assessed, with commentary on stabilising conditions in select suburban and freehold office assets, contrasted against ongoing challenges in secondary CBD office stock. The conversation extends to regional and residential property markets, highlighting which capital cities delivered the strongest growth and how government incentives influenced late-year momentum. Investor strategy, portfolio construction, and risk management Beyond market performance, this episode dives into commercial property investment strategy, focusing on how experienced investors are: Consolidating portfolios rather than accumulating smaller assets. Prioritising cash flow resilience over speculative growth. Diversifying across asset classes and geographies, including New Zealand commercial property. Actively refinancing to improve servicing and capital efficiency. Scott also shares practical lessons from 2025 around asset management, due diligence, development feasibility, tenant risk, and knowing when to exit underperforming properties – reinforcing why commercial portfolios must be managed like businesses, not passive investments. This episode is essential listening for anyone looking to understand where commercial property sits in the current cycle, how professional investors are positioning capital, and what disciplined commercial property investing looks like in a maturing market. What to expect in episode 69 In Episode 69, listeners will gain clarity on which asset classes are expected to deliver the strongest risk-adjusted returns, how interest rate cuts and lending competition are reshaping opportunities, and the strategic considerations disciplined investors should be making as they optimise portfolios and protect downside risk heading into 2026.