Experts aren't great forecasters

Why does not knowing feel worse than bad news? How to Not Know author Simone Stolzoff shows us how to make uncertainty work for us, not against us.

Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/1326

What We Discuss with Simone Stolzoff:

• Certainty feels like wisdom but often isn't — Phil Tetlock found the average expert predicting the future is about as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee, yet we keep mistaking confidence for competence and rewarding the loudest voice in the room.
• Our brains are wired for the savanna, not the spreadsheet. The same alarm bells that once warned us about rustling bushes now fire over phone storage decisions, leaving us anxious about choices that have almost nothing to do with survival.
• We hate ambiguity so much we'd choose guaranteed pain over uncertainty — one study found people facing a 50 percent chance of a shock felt more stressed than those facing 100 percent. Not knowing whether you'll lose your job hurts as much as actually losing it.
• Intolerance for uncertainty traps us in mediocre jobs, mediocre relationships, and mediocre lives. The "safe" choice quietly becomes the costly one, because the breakthroughs — entrepreneurial, creative, personal — all live on the other side of not knowing.
• Treat uncertainty tolerance as a muscle you can train. Take a new route to work, order the unfamiliar dish, run small experiments, write down your predictions, and trust your future self to handle future problems — that version of you will have more context than the one worrying today.
• And much more...

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