Oreshnik strike context and nuclear risk assessment

Day 1,440.

Today, as Ukrainians endure temperatures of minus -20 degrees Celsius and Russia marks the end of its so-called “energy ceasefire” with a new mass aerial attack, we ask what is stopping Donald Trump from simply urging Vladimir Putin to spare Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for another week. We report on NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s address to Ukraine’s parliament, examining what he meant by the “difficult choices” Kyiv may face in pursuit of peace. And later, with the START nuclear treaty due to expire this month, Adélie speaks to two researchers about nuclear signalling – and how to interpret what Moscow and Washington really mean behind their public statements.

Contributors

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Francis Dearnley (Executive Editor for Audio). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Adélie Pojzman-Pontay (Journalist and Producer). @adeliepjz on X.

SIGN UP TO THE ‘UKRAINE: THE LATEST’ WEEKLY NEWSLETTER:

http://telegraph.co.uk/ukrainenewsletter  

Each week, Dom Nicholls and Francis Dearnley answer your questions, provide recommended reading, and give exclusive analysis and behind-the-scenes insights – plus maps of the frontlines and diagrams of weapons to complement our daily reporting. It’s free for everyone, including non-subscribers.

CONTENT REFERENCED:

Frontline Club event in London on Wednesday:

https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/screening-qa-kharkiv-war-diaries-tickets-1979708915659 

Maiu Sandu Interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRnZUTGo1MI 

Putin waits until Kyiv hits -20C before knocking out power with missiles (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/03/putin-kyiv-power-coldest-temperature-missile-drone-attack/ 

EU demands Britain pays fee to join weapons fund (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/02/02/eu-demands-britain-pays-fee-to-join-weapons-fund/ 

Ukraine agrees multi-tier plan for enforcing any ceasefire with Russia (The Telegraph):

https://www.ft.com/content/0f26d56d-98cd-4999-8908-4a851a2de773 

Russia’s Nuclear Signaling in the War Against Ukraine: A Chronology of the Biden Era, (Peace Research Center Prague):

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a1448b4d0e62862b5a5a0e7/t/693eaa34207a1646b8b562aa/1765714484234/Horovitz_Smetana_et_al-Russia_Nuclear_Signalling_Chronology_Dec25_SMALL.pdf 

Barack Obama’s X Post:

https://x.com/BarackObama/status/2018323947230540249 

Napoleon stopped short soldiers from being sacked (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/02/napoleon-bonaparte-stopped-short-soldiers-being-sacked/

LISTEN TO THIS PODCAST IN NEW LANGUAGES:

The Telegraph has launched translated versions of Ukraine: The Latest in Ukrainian and Russian, making its reporting accessible to audiences on both sides of the battle lines and across the wider region, including Central Asia and the Caucasus. Just search Україна: Останні Новини (Ukr) and Украина: Последние Новости (Ru) on your on your preferred podcast app to find them. Listen here: https://linktr.ee/ukrainethelatest

Subscribe: telegraph.co.uk/ukrainethelatest

Email: ukrainepod@telegraph.co.uk

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.