Office market risks and ranges

In this episode of Inside Commercial Property, host Phil Tarrant is joined by Scott O’Neill, CEO of Rethink Group, to kick off 2026 with a comprehensive outlook on where commercial property markets are heading and how sophisticated investors should be positioning capital in the year ahead. Building on the momentum of a strong 2025, the conversation unpacks the major structural forces shaping commercial property today – from constrained development pipelines and rising construction costs to increased private and offshore capital flowing into Australian and New Zealand markets. Drawing on hundreds of active buyers and transactions across the Rethink platform, Scott provides a real-time, ground-level view of how investors are deploying capital and where competition is intensifying. The episode delivers a detailed asset-by-asset outlook for 2026, including industrial, retail, and office markets. Scott explains why secondary industrial assets are expected to deliver some of the strongest risk-adjusted returns, supported by owner-occupier demand, replacement cost pressures and yield expansion. Retail is also assessed, with neighbourhood shopping centres and large-format retail emerging as standout performers due to severe supply constraints, resilient tenant demand and improving investor sentiment. Listeners will gain practical insight into: - How to think like a family office when allocating capital. - Why blended portfolios across asset classes outperform concentrated strategies. - Setting minimum yield thresholds to protect downside risk. - Balancing income security with long-term capital growth. - Which asset types and deal structures to avoid in the current cycle. Scott also shares a disciplined perspective on interest rates, reinforcing why short-term movements should not drive long-term investment decisions, and how investors can build portfolios that remain resilient across changing economic conditions. This episode is essential listening for investors seeking clarity on where value exists in commercial property today, how professional capital is being positioned, and what a disciplined, long-term investment strategy looks like as markets move through the next phase of the cycle. Learn more: https://www.rethinkinvesting.com.au/ https://www.rethinkinvesting.co.nz/ https://www.rethinkresidential.com.au/Book a consultation: https://www.rethinkinvesting.com.au/l...