Consensus Risk and the Bubble Question

What if the best venture returns come from the LPs that are most patient and most strategic? In this episode, I sit down with Scott Voss, Partner at HarbourVest, to explore how the $150B multi-manager firm generates consistent outperformance across venture, growth equity, buyouts, and secondaries. Scott shares how consensus risk, vintage year timing, and strategic co-investing shape returns, why continuation vehicles and evergreen structures are transforming private markets, and how long-term relationships with GPs create first-look access to top deals.

Highlights:

• Consensus risk and why groupthink in hot sectors can distort valuations
• How venture returns correlate with capital deployment: less raised often equals higher performance
• Timing matters: investing through cycles, not just in peak years, compounds long-term alpha
• Continuation vehicles and secondaries as tools to capture liquidity and enhance returns
• Evergreen funds as a way to reduce cash drag and deliver smoother, long-term exposure
• Strategic GP partnerships: how trust, transparency, and co-investing unlock first-look deals
• Balancing diversification across funds, portfolio companies, and vintage years to reduce risk
• Scott’s advice: focus on alignment, persistence, and playing the long game for outsized outcomes

Guest Bio:

Scott is a Managing Director at HarbourVest with over 25 years of experience across the U.S. and Asia. He previously served two terms as Chair of the Global Primary Investment Committee and now focuses on venture capital, where his career began.

He currently serves as Senior Market Strategist, analyzing trends across the private markets ecosystem and sharing insights through client engagement, public speaking, and thought leadership. Earlier in his career, he led international sales and distribution for Cannondale Corporation. He holds a BS from Bryant College and an MBA from Babson College.

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Sponsor:

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X/Twitter: @dweisburd LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dweisburd/ Weisburd Capital: https://www.weisburdcapital.com/

Stay Connected with Scott C. Voss:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-voss-b91b94/

Questions or topics you want us to discuss on How I Invest? Email us at david@weisburdcapital.com.

Disclaimer:

HarbourVest Partners, LLC is a registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. This material is solely for informational purposes and should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or an offer to sell or the solicitation to buy securities or adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed herein represent the current, good faith views of the author(s) at the time of publication, are not definitive investment advice, and should not be relied upon as such. This material has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, HarbourVest does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information. There is no assurance that any events or projections will occur, and outcomes may be significantly different than the opinions shown here. This information, including any projections concerning financial market performance, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The information contained herein must be kept strictly confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed in any format without the express written approval of HarbourVest.

For important risks regarding private equity investing please see Important Information and Risk Factors: https://www.harbourvest.com/important-information-and-risk-factors/

(0:00) What is consensus risk (1:14) Identifying bubbles and their inevitability in asset classes (3:09) Lessons from the dot-com boom and capital-performance correlation (5:06) HarbourVest overview, strategies, and use of scale (8:32) Continuation vehicles: best practices and LP challenges (14:25) Diversification and portfolio construction in venture investing (16:11) Persistence and bifurcation in venture capital performance (18:10) Heuristics, fund returns, and strategic co-investments (21:24) HarbourVest's growth and organizational evolution (25:05) Exponential vs. linear growth in investment approaches (26:00) Evergreen funds: rise, impact, and liquidity structures (29:17) First look alpha and HarbourVest's sustainable edge (31:33) Stability in GP-LP relationships and private markets evolution (33:54) Balancing economics and value add in private equity (34:23) Closing remarks