In this episode of What’s New?, Serafima Andreeva speaks with Iver Neumann, Professor and Director at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, about what the return of great power politics means for the Arctic and for the international system more broadly.
Neumann challenges the idea that geopolitics is a simple contest between self-contained states. Power, he argues, rests on social and institutional foundations, not just territory or military capability. When those foundations erode, the consequences are systemic. Wars do not break out because they are inevitable, but because the political and legal restraints that once held them back begin to weaken.
The conversation focuses on the growing strain on international law and multilateral institutions. Neumann explains why international organisations matter precisely because they work quietly, absorbing friction before it escalates. When they are undermined, small disputes are more likely to harden into great power crises, and crises into conflict. The retreat from multilateralism, he warns, shifts the system toward great power concert politics, where deals are struck between the strongest actors with little anchoring in law, legitimacy, or social reality.
Against this backdrop, the Arctic becomes less exceptional than often assumed. The same forces reshaping global politics are at work in the High North, from shifting US behaviour and China’s systemic rise to Russia’s selective restraint and escalation. The result is a more volatile international environment in which small and middle powers face shrinking room for manoeuvre.
Neumann’s message is sober rather than alarmist. International law and institutions remain fragile but vital. The task for Arctic states is not to dramatise the moment, but to reinforce the structures that still prevent rivalry from turning into open conflict. His advice is simple and deliberate: stay prepared, trust institutions, and keep calm.
