Regime Influence vs. Regime Change

Yesterday the US & Israel conducted joint strikes on Iran's leadership and critical infrastructure.

We are now at war.

What will the likeliest implications be?

To address, RANE's Mideast analyst Ryan Bohl just joined me for a livestream this morning where he provided his latest assessment of the situation and his best forecast of what lies ahead.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#iran #middleeast #war 00:00 - Introduction and Welcome01:25 - Details of the Joint US-Israeli Strikes on Iran03:34 - Iran's Retaliation Across the Gulf Region05:06 - Confirmation of US Casualties05:59 - Extent of Decapitation in Iranian Leadership06:57 - Structure and Resiliency of Iran's Government09:36 - Information on New Interim Leaders10:29 - Continued Iranian Command and Control10:44 - US and Israeli Strike Plans and Air Superiority11:52 - Odds of Achieving Total Air Superiority13:55 - Assessment of Iran's Response Strength16:28 - US and Israeli Intelligence Capabilities in Iran19:52 - Breakdown of US-Iran Talks20:03 - Iran's Strikes on Regional Neighbors21:07 - Potential Uniting of the Region Against Iran24:26 - Neighbors' Preferences for Stable Regime or Change26:56 - Factors Leading to the Current Escalation28:45 - Nuclear Program as the Breaking Point29:02 - Timing of the Decision to Strike Now31:12 - Striking Iran as an 80/20 Global Issue33:56 - Domestic and International Support Dynamics35:53 - Viability of Regime Influence Strategy in Iran37:23 - Likelihood of Carrot-and-Stick Approach Succeeding39:44 - Odds of Domestic Uprising Removing the Regime44:26 - Implications of Cheering Footage and Expat Reactions47:03 - Prospects for the Shah's Son Returning49:20 - Worst-Case Scenario Outcomes52:41 - Best-Case Scenario for Iran54:35 - Potential for a Better World if Conflicts Resolve57:04 - Geopolitical Competition Persisting Globally58:20 - Implications for Global Markets and Commodities59:31 - Counsel for Those Fearing World War III_____________________________________________Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.