Q-Day Could Arrive in the Early 2030s

What if Bitcoin’s biggest strength becomes its fatal weakness? Nic Carter joins Bankless to unpack why the latest quantum papers changed the threat model, why a 2029 migration window could leave Bitcoin dangerously behind, what a real post-quantum transition would require, and why the fight over Satoshi’s dormant coins may become the most explosive governance battle in Bitcoin history.

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🎬 DEBRIEF | RYAN & DAVID UNPACKING THE EPISODE
https://www.bankless.com/podcast/debrief-bitcoin-has-3-years-to-survive-nic-carter

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Nic Carter’s Stark Warning
3:55 Bitcoin’s Status Quo Problem
9:36 The New Quantum Papers
12:07 When Breakthroughs Go Dark
16:28 “We will not get significant prior notice”
21:24 The 9-Minute Attack
31:33 Why 2029 suddenly matters
34:24 Post-Quantum Tradeoffs
46:03 Why Bitcoin Isn’t Reacting
52:21 The Satoshi coin problem
1:02:54 Nic’s salvage-law alternative
1:10:13 Why Ethereum looks more prepared
1:12:25 Does Bitcoin Survive?

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RESOURCES

Nic Carter
https://x.com/nic_carter

Nic’s takeaways from quantum papers
https://murmurationstwo.substack.com/p/my-takeaways-from-googles-and-oratomics

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