Black Sea incidents, Swedish sightings, and Canadian espionage

Day 1,392.

Today, as Russia attempts to insist that one of its $400 million submarines was not destroyed by a Ukrainian sea drone — in a manner that appears to prove the opposite — we bring you inside reporting from the American and Ukrainian negotiating teams at this pivotal moment. We also look ahead to a crunch European vote on whether to unlock and use frozen Russian state assets.

Contributors

Francis Dearnley (Executive Editor for Audio). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Michael Weiss (Editor of The Insider). @michaeldweiss on X.

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Each week, Dom Nicholls and Francis Dearnley answer your questions, provide recommended reading, and give exclusive analysis and behind-the-scenes insights – plus maps of the frontlines and diagrams of weapons to complement our daily reporting. It’s free for everyone, including non-subscribers.

CONTENT REFERENCED:

Russia: US has promised us Ukrainian territory (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/12/16/russia-us-promised-ukrainian-territory-war-sergei-lavrov/ 

Susie Wiles, JD Vance, and the “Junkyard Dogs”: The White House Chief of Staff on Trump’s Second Term (Vanity Fair):

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/trump-susie-wiles-interview-exclusive-part-1 

Ukraine Support Tracker (Kiel Institute):

https://www.kielinstitut.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ 

How Europe Can Defend Itself with Less America (CSIS Report):

https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-europe-can-defend-itself-less-america 

Canadian military intelligence officer allegedly shared classified information with Ukraine (Globe & Mail):

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canadian-forces-intelligence-officer-classified-information-ukraine/?intcmp=gift_share 

Swedish Navy spots armed Russian military personnel aboard shadow fleet tankers in Baltic Sea (Euromaidan):

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/16/swedish-navy-spots-russian-military-aboard-shadow-fleet/ 

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