The Fed Won't Come To The Rescue Anytime Soon | George Goncalves
Inflection Point
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The Negative Effects of COVID on the Job Market
L.E.I. versus real GDI on page 10 of the conference board leading index is a good place to start looking for signs of economic strength. When they both are negative, we are likely in a recession or heading into a recession and that's worked since the 1970s. But even back then, you still see the L.E. I. working as a signal and so did the real GDI going at either negative or close to zero. Either way, that is probably a better indicator of what the true health of the economy is if income on a real basis is not growing.
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