Global growth long cycle intact

Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory, makes the case that the U.S. no longer deserves its premium valuation — and that the biggest investing opportunity in decades is happening everywhere else.

Jay's framework, the Tri-Polar World thesis, argues that regional integration across Europe, Asia and the Americas is the dominant force shaping the global economy. Built on 30+ years of global macro experience, his view is that a global growth long cycle — driven by government and private sector spending on AI, defense and renewable energy — remains firmly intact, and that the Iran conflict may actually accelerate it.

His most provocative argument: the "EMification of America." The U.S. is increasingly exhibiting the volatile policymaking, concentrated power and institutional erosion typically associated with emerging markets — and yet still trades at a premium valuation. That, he says, is the disconnect that defines the next decade of investing.

Where does he see opportunity? Emerging markets — particularly China and Latin America — copper miners, commodities broadly, and the intersection of renewable energy and autonomous defense technology. He has held no long duration developed market sovereign debt for years.

Links:

Subscribe to Jay's Substack: https://jaypelosky.substack.com/

Learn more about TPW Advisory: https://pelosky.com/

Timestamps

0:00 — "The US doesn't deserve its premium valuation"  

0:26 — Welcome Jay Pelosky

1:00 — Is the global growth long cycle being derailed by Iran?

4:00 — AI, defense & climate as existential government spending drivers

6:30 — Oil price sensitivity today vs. the 1970s — why it's different this time

9:10 — The contrarian take: Iran could actually boost global growth

14:20 — TACO Trump & the search for an off-ramp

18:06 — Why Iran is the best advertisement for renewable energy ever

19:55 — Secular shift: the baton of global equity leadership passing to EM

21:05 — Why 2025 was just year one of US underperformance

24:00 — China, ASEAN & the reduced dependence on the US consumer

25:00 — Europe forced to confront reality: the US is no longer an ally 26:18 — The petrodollar at risk; the yuan's rising role 28:41 — US valuation erosion: gradual, not a crash

32:08 — What is the "EMification of America"?

36:32 — The American investor dilemma: wanting America to win vs. global opportunity

38:45 — China within EM: rare earths, digital & physical power shift

41:00 — China's lead in renewables, embodied AI and automation

42:36 — China defeating deflation; potential US-China rapprochement

43:05 — Portfolio positioning: overweight equities & commodities

44:00 — Specific ETF ideas: COPX, ILF, SMH and China equities

47:10 — Parting thoughts & where to find Jay