What AI Will Actually Do to the Economy with Noah Smith
Founders in Arms
Outro
Hosts thank Noah, close the episode, and remind listeners to leave reviews and follow the show.
Noah Smith is a writer and Substack blogger behind Noahpinion, known for his contrarian, data-grounded takes on economics, technology, and geopolitics.
What you'll learn:
- Why the viral Citrini "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" post moved markets — and whether it should have
- The psychology behind why "AI causes 2008" scared Wall Street more than killer robots
- Why Noah thinks an AI-driven financial crisis is possible but unlikely
- How a productivity boom could paradoxically trigger a mild recession through "sticky prices"
- Why AI-enabled bioterrorism — not economic disruption — is Noah's biggest fear
- What Block's 4,000-person layoff and Mercury's hiring shifts reveal about AI's real impact on jobs
- Why software job losses in 2023-24 may have been driven by uncertainty, not AI capability
- Noah's take on deflation, GDP growth, and where inflation goes from here
- Why intellectual humility has been Noah's biggest edge as a forecaster
- The "dinosaur and the meteor" theory — why we're worrying about the economy while a much bigger threat flies overhead
In this episode, we cover:
(00:00) The meteor meme — AI's real threat vs. the economy
(01:07) Introduction to Noah Smith
(02:14) What the Citrini post actually argued
(04:30) Why markets missed Covid — and what that tells us about AI
(06:17) Why Citrini moved markets: the power of pattern matching to 2008
(07:51) Breaking down Citrini's financial crisis domino theory
(08:38) Noah's verdict: possible but unlikely
(11:04) Block lays off 4,000 — how does AI-driven unemployment play out macro?
(17:42) How a productivity boom could cause a recession: sticky prices explained
(19:46) Noah's real AI fear: vibe-coded bioweapons
(24:55) Has bioterror surpassed China-Taiwan as Noah's top worry?
(25:10) The economy today: inflation, deflation, and GDP
(28:44) What Mercury's hiring strategy reveals about AI's effect on headcount
(31:32) Why software job losses in 2023-24 may have been forward-looking uncertainty
(34:38) The threat to blue collar jobs — are truck drivers next?
(35:52) Why intellectual humility is Noah's competitive edge
(39:26) The meteor meme closing: we created zombie gods for a 2.7% productivity boost
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