How Much Do You Allow for the Improbable Disaster?

Taleb: The future does not exist. It is only a range of possibilities. We have to understand that most outcomes will be determined by luck. Overpriced, if a stock is overpriced, that doesn't mean it's going down tomorrow. Lord Kane said the market could remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. And we might bet on the one we think will happen, but we should give allowance for some of the others.