Ad Buying, Agencies and Measurement Problems

Google crushes expectations even as YouTube slows, and Disney names a CEO to distract from its numbers. Welcome to The Media Odyssey Live!

In this live earnings coverage episode, Evan Shapiro and Marion Ranchet break down Google and Alphabet’s Q4 2025 wins and Disney's less positive performance. The conversation reveals surprising shifts in where advertising dollars are flowing, with mobile and social platforms capturing growth that once went to traditional video platforms. Rather than celebrating wins, the hosts dig into what the numbers actually reveal about maturing products, shifting consumer behavior, and the growing challenge of competing across multiple devices and formats.

The episode is a reality check on how even dominant players like YouTube are facing headwinds, while free ad-supported platforms are quietly gaining massive ground against premium subscription services.

Key Takeaways:

1. Google Beat Expectations But YouTube Growth Is Slowing

Google beat expectations on both top and bottom line, with cloud revenue growing 48%. However, YouTube revenue growth in Q4 was less than 10%, missing expectations for the first time in recent memory. This signals YouTube is becoming a maturing product, with the majority of Q4 advertising upside going to TikTok and Meta instead. Despite the slowdown, YouTube's full-year revenue outpaced Netflix's total revenue, and Google now has the same number of subscribers across Premium, Music, and Red as Netflix has total subscribers.

2. Mobile and Social Are Outpacing TV in Ad Spending

A record $13 billion in midterm political advertising is coming in 2026, with the majority of growth going to mobile-first, targeted advertising on platforms like Instagram and TikTok rather than traditional TV or even Connected TV. The money that used to flow to cable is now moving to Instagram and TikTok, signaling that mobile and social will outpace even connected television growth in 2026. YouTube needs to refocus on mobile and shorts to compete, as their heavy focus on TV has left mobile vulnerable.

3. Disney's Streaming Strategy Faces Challenges 

Disney's revenue was up only 5% in Q4, with net income down 9% for the quarter. However, net income grew 140% year-over-year, driven entirely by streaming services bouncing back toward profitability. The sports business (ESPN) was not profitable in Q4, mostly because of rights fees, with only 1% revenue growth but a 23% drop in operating income. Disney is positioned to add vertical video to their streaming platform as a way to embrace social-first experiences and the creator economy.

4. FAST Surpassed Netflix in Q4 Engagement

Free Ad-supported TV platforms collectively surpassed Netflix in Q4 2025 television engagement in the United States according to Nielsen's Gauge. Tubi grew revenue 19% year-over-year and had its second profitable quarter, reaching 3% on the Gauge. Roku Channel hit 2.5%, and when combined with other FAST platforms not measured by Nielsen (like Samsung TV Plus), FAST collectively exceeded Netflix's share even with Netflix's massive December performance. This represents the biggest competitive threat to both YouTube and Netflix going forward.

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Connect with us on Linkedin:

Evan Shapiro - https://www.linkedin.com/in/eshap-media-cartographer/

Marion Ranchet - https://www.linkedin.com/in/marionranchet/

The Media Odyssey Podcast - https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-media-odyssey-podcast

• (00:00) - Introduction and Greetings
• (00:35) - Earnings Season Coverage Begins
• (01:21) - Google's Performance Analysis
• (04:26) - Mobile vs. TV Advertising Trends
• (10:25) - AI and Google's Strategy
• (11:25) - Disney's Financial Results
• (16:32) - Discussion on Parks and Revenue
• (17:30) - Challenges with Leadership and Talent Management
• (18:40) - The Future of ESPN and ABC
• (21:10) - Embracing the Creator Economy
• (22:06) - Vertical Content and Social Media Strategies
• (24:34) - Industry Comparisons and Market Analysis
• (29:30) - The Rise of Vertical and Micro Content
• (31:24) - Conclusion and Upcoming Topics