Establishing Forecastability and Causality

▬▬▬ DISCUSSION ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
💬Join the discussion on Telegram: https://t.me/+OgDv1Djbvs80M2Fk
▬▬▬ EPISODE ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
In this episode, dive into a comprehensive discussion on modern monetary theory, macroeconomic modeling, and how fiscal flows influence markets and assets like Bitcoin with Douglas Padgett -- a macro researcher and founder of Applied MMT. He shares his insights on government spending, private credit cycles, and the importance of flow analysis for market forecasting.
Follow Douglas Padgett 👉 https://x.com/MMTmacrotrader
▬▬▬ SUPPORT ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
⚡️LNMS on Lightning: lnms@ln.mtpelerin.com
₿ BTC-Address: bc1qmk7gfdnrdegnmnrtnacj6rslan0y6v29kdlf9p
💵https://buy.stripe.com/9B600k5Tscv33Ue4zRdby00
Twint: https://go.twint.ch/1/e/tw?tw=acq.Z7L1opJwS72nbGgEMY4w3ILkf67JAEyEFmXrtoKoUbONWSsjLDDQIhNx5ReanPy7.
▬▬▬ LINKS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
📰 LNMS Newsletter: https://lessnoisemoresignal.substack.com/
🎧 LNMS on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/4apksnyn
🎧 LNMS on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/ttha8kku
🎧 LNMS on Rumble: https://tinyurl.com/4k96c7tw
🎧 LNMS on Fountain: https://tinyurl.com/5dsbbj5p
🌐 LNMS Website: https://www.lessnoise-moresignal.com/
📖 Bitcoin Book: https://www.amazon.de/dp/1967693013
🎧 LNMS on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4jfhr4zn
▬▬▬ SOCIALS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
Follow on X👉 https://x.com/pahueg
Follow on Nostr 👉 https://primal.net/pascal
Follow on LinkedIn 👉 https://www.linkedin.com/in/pascal-huegli/
▬▬▬ CHAPTERS ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
00:00 Intro
01:32 Why traditional textbooks overlook the real macro regime post-1970s
02:02 Douglas's background: Austrian roots and transition to MMT-based macro analysis
04:18 Core ideas of Modern Monetary Theory and government’s role in creating financial assets
12:39 Defining applied MMT: profits, profits sources, and the profit cycle
15:17 How government spending acts as an asset and profit driver
19:00 The mechanics of government borrowing and liabilities as assets
23:41 The role of repo markets and reserves in government spending
32:15 The real fiscal deficit impulse and its predictive power
44:37 Private debt cycles and leverage in macro analysis
49:35 Deep MMT: advanced forecasting tools and system dynamic models
01:06:01 Correlation between fiscal flows and Bitcoin price movements
01:10:27 Why fiscal flows provide a clearer picture than Fed liquidity
01:13:08 The nature of the Treasury General Account (TGA) and its implications
01:14:33 The relationship between bond issuance, reserves, and fiscal policy

Support the show