Ep. 514: Epic Behavioral Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Probabilistic Mindset
The best forecasters are hard pressed to do any better than dart-going chimpanzees. Forecasting is not certainty, and I think each of us is willing to move in response to evidence. The right way to ask a super forecaster would be to what degree do you believe that the average surface temperature of the earth in 2100 will fall into the following temperature band differentials? They don't...that's not exactly casual bar room conversation.
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Transcript
