Private valuations versus IPO pricing

SpaceX is reportedly lining up four major Wall Street banks for a 2026 IPO that could provide the reset the market needs. 

The company just completed a tender offer at an $800 billion valuation, and secondary market demand is through the roof. If SpaceX goes public anywhere near its rumored $1.5 trillion valuation, it could trigger an IPO cascade for other late-stage unicorns like OpenAI, Stripe, and Databricks. 

Today on TechCrunch’s Equity podcast, Rebecca Bellan spoke with Greg Martin, Managing Director at Rainmaker Securities, to discuss why this IPO feels different, how tech employees are cashing out through secondary markets before companies go public, and what investors are actually looking for in pre-IPO shares. 

Listen to the full episode to hear: 

• Which other late-stage unicorns are seeing the most secondary trading action right now. 

• Why SpaceX is ready to go public, despite previously saying it “wouldn't IPO until rockets were flying to Mars regularly” (and why Martin doesn’t think SpaceX will continue on its debut path if the market tanks) 

• The "Elon halo effect" and how much of SpaceX's valuation is based on Musk himself 

• What happens when SpaceX employees want to sell shares before the IPO 

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction
01:39 The Booming Secondary Market for Pre-IPO Shares
04:06 SpaceX as an IPO Bellwether
06:31 Why Elon Musk Changed His Mind on Going Public
10:04 The Race to a Trillion-Dollar Valuation
12:27 The Elon Halo Effect on Valuations
15:17 What Signals an Upcoming IPO?
17:50 How Secondaries Drive Better Price Discovery
20:47 How SpaceX Secondaries Actually Work
24:03 What Investors Want from Pre-IPO Companies
25:11 The Have and Have-Not World of Secondaries
26:42 Outro

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