Incrementality and structured experiments

What does your CFO actually want to hear from you?

In this episode of That’s What I Call Marketing, Conor Byrne sits down with Michael Kaminsky former analytics leader at Harry’s and Founder & CEO of Recast to unpack the real tension between marketing and finance. After Michael’s Harvard Business Review article on the CMO–CFO relationship circulated widely (and resonated strongly with CFOs and CMOs), this conversation goes deep on:

• Why marketing forecasts keep missing
• Why finance doesn’t trust marketing numbers
• How to talk about ROI and risk credibly
• The problem with last-click attribution
• How to structure experiments properly
• What “expected value” really means for marketers
• Why brand investment must be framed as capital allocation

If you’re a CMO, Marketing Director, Head of Performance or brand leader trying to build a stronger relationship with your CFO — this episode is essential.

⏱️ Chapters

01:02 – Michael’s time at Harry’s: analytics, growth & experimentation

05:00 – The early days of podcast advertising & growth bets

06:15 – False precision in marketing measurement

07:23 – Brand tracking, survey data & real signal

08:42 – The Harvard Business Review article

09:07 – Why CMOs and CFOs feel tension

10:13 – Speaking the language of finance

14:21 – Discounted cash flow & thinking in timelines

15:00 – The credibility killer: marketing marketing

15:32 – Why being willing to be wrong builds trust

18:20 – Talking about risk & expected value

22:18 – Incrementality & structured experimentation

25:05 – Recast: forecasting & bridging marketing and finance

28:28 – The forecasting trap: last-touch attribution

30:19 – Compounding learning & agency transparency

32:00 – Final reflections: marketing as growth co-pilot

🔎 Topics Covered

• CMO CFO relationship
• Marketing finance alignment
• Marketing ROI
• Forecasting marketing investment
• Incrementality in marketing
• Last click attribution problems
• Media mix modelling (MMM)
• Brand investment vs short-term performance
• Capital allocation in marketing
• Building trust with finance

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Check out Recast here https://getrecast.com/

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