What Prediction Markets Actually Predict

Luana Lopes Lara is the world's youngest self-made female billionaire and co-founder of Kalshi, the prediction market that sued the U.S. government and won.

Natalie Brunell sits down with Luana to trace her journey from a rigorous ballet school in Brazil to MIT, then to a trading desk at Citadel, and into a multi-year battle with the CFTC that ended in a federal lawsuit. After 65 lawyers told her the idea was impossible, Kalshi sued the U.S. government — and won one month before the 2024 election.

We get into:

• What prediction markets are, and how Kalshi's data is being used as a forecasting tool
• What it's like being named the world's youngest self-made woman billionaire - all before she's 30
• The four-year regulatory fight with the CFTC and the decision to sue to U.S. government
• How Kalshi screens for insider trading — and where the stock market doesn't
• Why nearly 30% of Kalshi's users are women, well above most trading platforms
• Her first Bitcoin: a $100 giveaway from the MIT Bitcoin Club
• A Federal Reserve paper found Kalshi's markets outperformed economists at forecasting macro trends
• Her case for why the American Dream is still alive

Follow Luana Lopes Lara on X: https://x.com/luanalopeslara and follow Kalshi at https://x.com/Kalshi

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This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. Ads in this episode are baked-in and may reference promotions or offers that are no longer available at the time of listening.

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