Guest Host Lucy Caldwell and Dmitri Mehlhorn (Founder, The Atoll Society) have a conversation about political risk, institutional blind spots, and what scenario-based thinking reveals that conventional analysis often misses.
They discuss the Atoll Society’s simulation salons, which use scenario-based exercises to test assumptions about power, institutions, and the rule of law. Rather than predict outcomes, the goal is to surface blind spots: where existing frameworks for understanding democracy, law, and political behavior may no longer fully apply.
The conversation turns to the violence in Minnesota, the uneven application of state power, and the idea that political systems often change less through dramatic breaks than through accumulation—small decisions that reshape incentives and expectations over time.
They examine why political leaders and institutions tend to emphasize reassurance, even in periods of uncertainty, and how that instinct can limit honest discussions about risk. Along the way, they consider how history, founding-era debates, and comparative examples can help anchor difficult conversations without resorting to speculation.
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