Prediction Markets and Senate Odds

Political commentator Chris Cillizza — who co-hosted the live Texas primary night coverage with Chuck— rejoins the show to dissect the aftermath of the Texas results and the broader 2026 landscape. With Jasmine Crockett having conceded to James Talarico and the Paxton-Cornyn race headed to a runoff that's essentially a coin flip, Todd and Cillizza dig into what Talarico's victory really means: he dominated in counties Bernie Sanders won, Latino voters broke decisively his way, and his ground game should terrify Republicans — but they caution against mistaking someone who is temperamentally moderate and perceived as "nice" for being politically moderate. They argue that Texas Democrats, having lost for so long, were desperate for something new, and that constant losing has made electability matter more than ideology — Democrats had to vote with their heads, not their hearts. They assess Crockett's future (great political athlete, bad campaign infrastructure, potential to compete for Ted Cruz's seat someday), debate whether Democrats should meddle in the GOP runoff to boost Paxton, and note that Talarico’s floor is around 47-48% — meaning Texas is genuinely in play.

The conversation then expands to the national map and the broader forces shaping 2026. They unpack Kamala Harris's late endorsement of Crockett — which came too late to matter and reinforces the same knock Biden got about indecisiveness — and Gavin Newsom's conspicuous shift on Israel in front of a liberal audience. They contrast that with the authenticity of politicians like Bernie Sanders and early-career JD Vance, noting that Vance has now lost his anti-interventionist identity after backing the Iran war while the administration's narrative spinning on the conflict is "an absolute mess." Looking ahead, they agree that the perception of the economy in June will be what drives the midterms, that the war will consume the administration — especially given the embarrassing lack of an evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East, Trump's biggest critique of Biden — and that prediction markets now give Democrats a 45% chance of winning the Senate. They close by surveying pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, flagging independent candidates in the Midwest who know they can't win as Democrats, and declaring that 2026 will be the clearest preview yet of how 2028 plays out.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chris Cillizza joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Jasmine Crockett concedes race to James Talarico

02:15 Race between Paxton & Cornyn essentially a wash

03:00 Big question is “Can Cornyn get to 50%”

03:45 Public is getting tired with the bomb throwers in politics

05:45 Talarico did well in counties that Bernie Sanders won

06:45 Texas Dems have been losing forever, desperate for “new”

08:30 Don’t mistake politically & temperamentally “moderate”

09:15 Being perceived as “nice” goes a long way

10:30 Online Dems are mad, but many want a change in tone

12:00 If Platner beats Mills by 15, Talarico data point feels like outlier

12:45 Have constant Dem losses in TX made “electability” more important?

13:45 Dems in Texas have to vote with their head and not their heart

15:30 Crockett is a great political athlete with bad campaign infrastructure

16:30 Talarico had a great ground game, should scare Republicans

17:45 Crockett could compete for Ted Cruz’s senate seat

18:30 Unlikely this is the last we hear from Crockett in politics

19:30 Crockett did well where she was well known

20:30 Kamala Harris endorsement came too late for Crockett

21:30 Harris shows herself to be incredibly risk averse

24:15 We’ll get the full story on the late endorsement in six months

25:00 Harris shares the same knock Biden got… can’t make decisions

25:45 Newsom signals shift on Israel in front of a very liberal audience

27:00 Newsom just pandering? Or is it a genuine flip

28:30 Gavin Newsom is a politician to his core

30:00 Newsom looked like he was desperate to find traction

30:30 Trump didn’t change, the moment came to him

31:30 Tariffs are terrible politics, but Trump’s liked them for decades

32:00 Bernie Sanders has been the most authentic politician for years

33:15 Sanders and Ron Paul ended up voting together many times

34:45 Vance lost the anti-interventionist part of his identity after Iran war

36:30 The spinning for a narrative for the war is an absolute mess

38:00 The perception of the economy in June will be what affects midterms

39:15 War will consume the administration

40:00 Administration had no plan to evacuate Americans from middle east

41:00 Trump’s big critique of Biden was the Afghanistan withdrawal

43:30 Prediction markets have Dems chances of winning senate at 45%

46:15 How should Dems try to affect Texas runoff?

48:00 Meddling works and if Cornyn is the nominee Talarico loses

48:30 Talarico’s floor is around 47-48

49:00 How do Dems sort Alaska, Ohio, Texas and Iowa?

50:15 If Josh Turek is the nominee in Iowa, race could be interesting

51:30 2026 will give us a clue as to how 2028 will play out

53:00 If one of the independent candidate wins statewide it’s a BIG deal

55:30 Midwest independent candidates know they can’t run as Dems and win

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