Ep. 502: Efficient Market Thinking with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
00:00
The Problem With Guessing
In other words, guessing is a dumb man's job. The problem is not what might be wrong but what might be substituted precisely in place of it. As soon as any real definite idea is substituted it becomes almost immediately apparent that it doesn't work. There is an infinite number of possibilities on these of these simple types. It's something like this. You are sitting working very hard and some Joe comes along who doesn't know anything about what you are doing or anything you said that you were trying to do. He says, you know, why don't you try a combination 10, 20, 30? Because you are busy. I haven't already thought of that but it takes too long
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