The 2026 contest for the U.S. House of Representatives looks favorable for Democrats. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is in the low 40s, and Democrats have led in the generic ballot by roughly 5 points since November. Although the midterms are about seven months away, we also have a pretty good idea about which seats are most vulnerable for each party — especially Republicans, who are more likely to lose ground in 2026 as the presidential party.
But what about some districts that are more on the periphery? In midterms, the opposition party sometimes flips seats that are pretty favorable for the party in the White House. Meanwhile, the president’s party occasionally springs a surprise even if the midterms don’t go particularly well for that side of the aisle. To talk about some potential under-the-radar races in 2026, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Erin Covey, the House Editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, where she leads coverage of the electoral situation in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The conversation began with an overview of the 2026 House situation and why Democrats are favored to capture a majority (3:00). Then they began to look at some races that might be more competitive than expected. They dove into two majority-Latino seats in Texas, starting with the open 23rd District, which The Cook Political Report recently moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in its ratings (8:00). They then explored what’s happening in the newly-drawn 35th District, another Likely Republican seat (15:40).
Moving to the east, Geoffrey and Erin examined the lay of the land in North Carolina’s 11th District, a Likely Republican seat where Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards is seeking reelection (25:23). In the Midwest, another Likely Republican seat that could be in play is Iowa’s 2nd District, which is open due to GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid (33:38). They then delved into two Colorado seats, the state’s 3rd and 5th districts, where Republican Reps. Jeff Hurd and Jeff Crank are seeking reelection, respectively (41:20). They then concluded by talking about some opportunities the GOP might have to compete for Democratic-held seats, such as California’s 13th District and New York’s 4th District (49:30).
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