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Harris Kupperman and Roderick van Zuylen join Monetary Matters to discuss the intersection of thematic macro trends and event-driven catalysts. They dives deep into the severe supply-demand imbalances creating massive tailwinds for the refining industry, alongside the political shifts making Latin American equities a highly lucrative trade. They also discuss the rising volatility driving commodity brokers like Marex, and why the eldercare sector is primed for a breakout due to a halt in new facility construction.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:10 Refiners Theme Setup
02:06 Why Cracks Tightened
05:18 Picking Refiner Winners
08:26 Earnings Path Dependence
14:22 Analyst Estimates Mispriced
17:54 Latin America Tailwinds
20:57 Brazil Financials Bet
24:01 Finding Mispriced Setups
30:28 KEDM Offer
31:15 Long Vol Through Brokers
34:03 Marex and Stonex Tailwinds
34:33 Macro Drivers of Volumes
36:11 CFO Hedging Incentives
37:57 Prediction Markets Opportunity
39:32 Eldercare Theme Setup
44:53 When Themes Meet Catalysts
46:17 Investor Days as Signals
48:45 Fallen Angels Returns
53:15 AI Automation for Monitors
54:23 CEO Pay as a Tell
55:26 US Consumer Weakness
This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. Any views expressed are the personal opinions of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of their employers, affiliates, clients, or any related parties. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own advisers before making any investment or financial decision. The appearance of any speaker, guest, company, product, or service on this podcast does not constitute an endorsement, recommendation, or approval by any participant or third party. Any investments discussed are illustrative only and are not intended to reflect any actual portfolio. Examples are meant to show aspects of an investment approach, and while some may highlight successful trades, not all trades are successful or profitable.
