Plausible deniability via disputed islands

The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption.

His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome

01:32 Beer And Banter

05:05 Trump Pause And Troops

06:43 Oil Shock Timeline

08:41 Houthis And Red Sea

11:31 Shortages Beyond Oil

13:43 Troop Math Reality

18:06 War Outlook Shifts

24:38 Island Invasion Scenarios

28:50 Iran Constraints Debate

32:20 Market Mispricing Pain

34:12 China And Allies Fallout

35:09 China Leverage on Iran

36:55 Low Conviction Warnings

37:53 Middle East War Normalized

40:00 Tacit Rules of Engagement

42:19 Pushback and Pain Threshold

48:36 Markets Start to Crack

53:24 Munitions and Time Limits

54:55 Europe Energy Exposure

56:52 Europe Must Get Real

59:51 Germany Nuclear Wake Up

01:07:05 Multipolar Pragmatism

01:09:56 Europe Virtue Signaling

01:12:37 Summing Up the Fog

01:14:19 Two Week Ticking Clock

01:16:11 Constraint Framework Equilibrium

01:17:32 Israel Leverage And Lebanon

01:20:19 Age Of Revisionism

01:24:46 Realism And The 19th Century

01:27:55 Inequality And Soft Power

01:29:39 NBA Talk Starts Here

01:30:10 Relegation And 30 Teams

01:34:13 Baseball Overtakes Basketball

01:43:01 Wrap Up Mad Max Title

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro