Becoming a Medical Forecaster

Clinicians and patients are in a state of prognostic uncertainty when they are unsure about the future course of an illness. By embracing uncertainty while cultivating prognostic awareness, neurologists can serve the critical role of supporting patients and families through the living and dying process.

In this episode, Casey Albin, MD, speaks with Robert G. Holloway, MD, MPH, FAAN, author of the article "Managing Prognostic Uncertainty in Neurologic Disease" in the Continuum® December 2025 Neuropalliative Care issue.

Dr. Albin is a Continuum® Audio interviewer, associate editor of media engagement, and an assistant professor of neurology and neurosurgery at Emory University School of Medicine in Atlanta, Georgia.

Dr. Holloway is the Edward and Alma Vollertsen Rykenboer Chair and a professor of neurology in the department of neurology at the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry in Rochester, New York.

Additional Resources

Read the article: Managing Prognostic Uncertainty in Neurologic Disease

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Host: @caseyalbin

Full episode transcript available here

Dr Jones: This is Dr Lyell Jones, Editor-in-Chief of Continuum. Thank you for listening to Continuum Audio. Be sure to visit the links in the episode notes for information about earning CME, subscribing to the journal, and exclusive access to interviews not featured on the podcast.

Dr Albin: Hello, this is Dr Casey Albin. Today I'm interviewing Dr Bob Holloway about his article on managing prognostic uncertainty in neurologic disease, which appears in the December 2025 Continuum issue on neuropalliative care. Welcome to the podcast, and please introduce yourself to our audience.

Dr Holloway: Hi, Casey, and thank you. Again, my name is Bob Holloway. I'm a clinician and neurologist up in Rochester, New York, and I've been doing both neurology and palliative care for many years.

Dr Albin: Well, that's fantastic. And I really wanted to emphasize how much I really enjoyed reading this article. I know that we're going to get into some of the pearls that you offer, but I really want to tell the listeners, like, this is a great one to read because not only does it have sort of a philosophical take, but you also really provide some pragmatic tips of how we can help our patients manage this prognostic uncertainty. But maybe just tell us a little bit, what is prognostic uncertainty?

Dr Holloway: Yes, thank you. Well, I think everyone has a sense of what prognostic uncertainty is. And it's just the uncertain futures that we as clinicians and our patients face. And I would just say that a way to summarize it is just, how do we manage the "not yet" of neurologic illness?

Dr Albin: I love that. In neurologic illness, there is so much "not yet" and there are so many unknowns. And what I thought was really helpful about your article is you kind of give us three buckets in which we can think about the different types of uncertainty our patients are facing. What are those?

Dr Holloway: This is, I think, an area that really is of interest to me, thinking about how to organize the prognostic "not yet" or that landscape. And one way I've tried to simplify it is to think about it as data-centered. And that's the world that we mostly live in as neurologists. That's the probability distributions. We also have kind of system-level uncertainties, and that's the uncertainties that our health system affords for our patients. And then we have, also, the patient-centered uncertainties and the uncertainties that those two prior categories cause for our patients. And that's a big uncertainty that we often don't address.

Dr Albin: In reading the article, I was really struck by, we spend a lot of time thinking about data uncertainty. Can we get population-based research? Can we sort of look at prognostication scoring? I live in the ICU, and so we think a lot about these, like, scoring metrics and putting patients into buckets and helping us derive their care based on where their severity index is. And I'm sure that is true in many of the divisions of neurology. But what I did not really appreciate---and I thought you did a really fantastic job of kind of drawing our attention to---is there's a lot of system-centered uncertainty. Can you give us a little bit of examples, like, what is system-based uncertainty?

Dr Holloway: I think system-level uncertainties just encompass the practical information gaps that may arise during our healthcare encounter. And a lot of, I think, the uncertainty that our patients face and families, they actually describe it as they feel captive by the uncertainty. And it's just the unknowns, not just what affords from the actual information about the disease and its prognosis in the future, but actually the level of the system, like, who's going to take care of them? How do you manage arranging for nurses to come into the home or all those practical-level uncertainties that the system provides that sometimes we don't do a good job of road-mapping for patients.

Dr Albin: Absolutely. Because I feel like we have a little bit of a gap in that often as physicians. Like, the family asks, what will hospice at home look like? Well, you know, that's a question for case management. I think they'll come in and they'll tell you. But it strikes me that that's a real gap of my being able to walk patients through. Will they get home health care? Will they have transportation set up? Will there be a nurse who comes in to check? How often are they available? What's the cost going to be? All of these practical aspects of dealing with an illness that are beyond sort of our scope of knowledge, but probably have a huge practical impact to the patient.

Dr Holloway: Without question, every encounter patients wonder about, that kind of future wish landscape that we- all our future-oriented desires and hopes. And so much of that is the practical aspects of our health system, which is often fragmented, kind of unknown, uncertain. And that's a huge source of uncertainty for our patients and families. And then that leads to many other uncertainties that we need to address.

Dr Albin: Absolutely. I think another one that we, again, maybe don't spend quite as much time thinking about is this patient-level uncertainty. What's going on there?

Dr Holloway: Yeah. So, I think patient-level uncertainty is that uncertainty that they experience when confronted with the two other types of uncertainty: the actual data-centered uncertainty and the system-level uncertainty. And that's that, kind of, very huge kind of uncertainty about what it means for them and their family and their future futures. And that's a source of huge stress and anxiety, and often frankly bordering on dread and fear for our patients and families. That actually gets into very levels of uncertainty that I would call maybe over even in the existential realm. Patient-level uncertainty in the actual existential questions or the fear and the dread or the kind of just unnerving aspect of it is actually even more important to patients than the scientific or data-centered uncertainty that we focus most of our attention on.

Dr Albin: Yeah, I think this is, to me, was getting towards that, like, what does the patient care about and how are they coping with what is in many times a really dramatic shift in their life expectancy or morbidity expectations and this sort of radical renegotiation about what it means to have a neurologic illness? And how does that shift their thinking about who they are and their priorities in the world? Is that right?

Dr Holloway: One thousand percent, and in fact, I will say---and I think is one of the main take home messages is that, you know, managing prognostic certainty is not an end in itself. It really is to help patients and families adaptively cope to their new and often harsh new reality, that we could help them adapt to their new normal. I think that is one of our main tasks as neurologists in our care teams is to help patients find and ultimately maybe achieve existential or spiritual or well-being even in their new health states. You know, that you certainly often see in the intensive care unit, but we often always see in the outpatient realm as well, and all our other diseases.

Dr Albin: I think that's really hard to do. I think those conversations are incredibly difficult and trying to navigate where patients want to be, what would bring meaning, what would bring value. I think many of us struggle to have these pretty real and intense conversations with families about what really is important. And one of the things I really liked about this article is you kind of walk us through some steps that we as clinicians can take to get a little bit more comfortable. Maybe just walk us through, what are some of the things that you have found most helpful in trying to get families and patients to open up about what brings them meaning? How are they navigating this new, really uncertain time in their life?

Dr Holloway: Yeah, so I do kind of have a ten-point recommendations of how to help cultivate a more integrated awareness of an uncertain future. I mean, I think the most important thing is actually just recognizing that embracing uncertainty as an amazingly remarkable cognitive tool. I mean, let's face it, uncertainty, when it happens with neurologic illness and disease, is often fearful. It's scary. It kind of changes our world. But on the flip side of it, it's a remarkable cognitive tool that actually can help us find new ways and new paths and new creativity. And I think we can use that kind of opposites to help our patients find new meaning in very difficult situations. So, thinking about uncertainty, kind of being courageous, leaning into it and recognizing that it does create anxieties and fear, but it also can kind of help create new solutions and new ideas to help people navigate.

Dr Albin: I was hoping that maybe you could give us an example of, like, how would you do that? If a patient comes in and they're dealing with, you know, a new diagnosis and they're navigating this new uncertainty, what are some of the things that you ask to help them reframe that, to kind of take some of the good about that uncertainty? How do you navigate that?

Dr Holloway: One of the other recommendations is actually just resetting the timeline and expectations for these conversations. That it shouldn't be expected that patients should accept their harsh new reality immediately, that it takes time in a trusted environment. And that there's this, like, oscillating nature of hopes and fears and dread, and you've just got to work with them over time. And with time, and once you understand who the patient and family are and understand where they find meaning and where they find, actually, joy in their life, or what actually brings them meaning, you can start recasting their futures into credible narratives in their kind of future landscape in ways that I think can help them enter into their new realities within the, you know, framework of disease management that you can offer them within your healthcare team or your healthcare system or wherever you are in the world and the available resources that you have to offer patients and families.

Dr Albin: So, this sounds like a lot to me like active listening and really trying to get to know what is important to the family, what is important to the patient. And I guess probably just creating that space even in that busy clinical environment. Do I have that right?

Dr Holloway: You can absolutely do that, right. You know, and honestly, active listening, we are challenged in our busy healthcare system to do this, but I think with the right listening skills and the appropriate ways of paying attention, you can definitely illuminate these possible, kind of future-oriented worlds for patients and help them navigate those new terrains with them. Frankly, I think that's a real new space for us in neurology. We don't think about and train how to create credible narratives for patients and families. We do it on the fly, but I think there's so much more work to do. How do you actually keep, you know, that best-case, worst-case, most likely credible narratives for patients that can help them adapt to their new realities and support them on their new journeys?

Dr Albin: I love that best-case, worst-case, most likely case. I find that framework really helpful. But you talk in your article, it's not just about using that best case or worst case or most likely, but it's actually building some forecasting into that and having some real data to kind of support what you're saying. And there's a lot of growth towards actually becoming good as a medical forecaster. Can you describe a little bit, what did you mean by that?

Dr Holloway: You're absolutely right. I think, actually, one of the skillsets of becoming and managing prognostic uncertainty is actually becoming a skilled medical forecaster. And it's a really tall order. So, we've got to be both good medical forecasters as well as helping patients adaptively cope to their new reality. But the good medical forecasting is actually now going more quantitative in thinking about the data that's available to help think about the important outcomes for patients and families and then predicting what their probabilities are so you can shape those futures around. So, yes, we do have to have an open mindset. We do have to actually look at the data that's available and actually think about, what are those long-term probabilities and outcomes? And we can be honest about those and even communicate them with families. But it's a really good skill set to have.

Dr Albin: Yeah. This to me was a little bit about, how do you bring in the data knowledge that we try to get over time as we develop our expertise? You're developing not just a reliance on population-based data, but in my experience, I have seen this. And that sort of ability to kind of look at the patient in front of you, think about the big picture, but also a little bit about their unique medical comorbidities or prior life experiences. So, some of that database knowledge, and then bringing in and getting to know what is important to the patient. And so, sort of marrying that data-centric/patient-centric mindset.

Dr Holloway: I love it. I guess the other way of saying that, too, is we need to think with precision, but communicate in narratives. And it's okay to gently put more precise estimates on our probability predictions with patients and families, what we think is the most likely case, best and worst case. Because patients and families want us to be more precise. We often shy away from it, but- so, it's okay to think in precisions, but we've got to put those in narratives in the most likely, best-, and worst-case scenarios. And don't be afraid if you think in terms of ninety percents, ten percents, fifty percents; most patients and families don't mind that. And what they're telling us is they actually want to hear that, if you are comfortable talking in those terms.

Dr Albin: Yeah, absolutely. And giving a sense of the humility to say, like, this is my best guess based on medical data and my experience, I would say, but again, none of us have a crystal ball. And I do think families, as long as you're sort of couching your expectations into the sort of imperfect, but I'm doing my best, really appreciate that.

Dr Holloway: They totally do all the time. Just say, I simply don't know for certain, but these are my best estimates. That's a good way of just phrasing that.

Dr Albin: Yeah. So powerful. I don't know for certain. And then I wanted to just kind of close out, because there's this one term that you use that I thought was so interesting. And I wanted you to kind of tell our listeners a little bit about what you mean here, which is that, when you're actively open-minded, you're using this, quote, "dragonfly eyes." What do you mean by that?

Dr Holloway: So, the dragonfly eyes, as you know, they can look at three sixty around them and they just, they move in all directions. Being actively open minded, I guess the biggest example I would say is, I don't like the term prognostic discordance, which means that there's a difference of subjective estimates of prognosis between patients and families. Being openly minded is actually embracing the potential information that the family has about prognosis and incorporating that into your estimates. So, I wouldn't say it's discordances, per se; I think being really actively open-minded is taking that all in and utilizing that as, you know what, they know more than you do about the patient and their loved ones, and they may have insights that can inform your best estimates of prognosis. So, the true dragonfly prognosticator actually is one who embraces and doesn't consider it discord, but considers it kind of new, useful information that I just need to weigh in so I can help the family in my best professional way in terms of developing a prognosis, whatever the condition may be.

Dr Albin: I can imagine this is just so challenging and something that takes a long time to sort of perfect all of this. I think you say right below that, you need a growth mindset to do this because it is hard, and it's going to take an active participation and an active desire to get better at these conversations with our families.

Dr Holloway: One thousand percent. You are so right that it takes time, effort, and not feeling like you're being challenged, but that actually you are including them in your entire body of knowledge, that you're just- it's part of all you're collecting. And even, I was on service last week, and I talked to residents and students about that very issue. It's like take their prognosis. And someone who came in, we thought CJB, very sad, tragic case, but we were thinking about what the future may look like and how do we actually work with the family who had very what we thought was unrealistic expectations. I said, well, no, this is not discordance. This is just useful information that we can take understand where they're coming from and incorporate that into the ways we want to build relationships, build trust, and over time we'll get to a point where we hopefully can work with them and have them have that fully integrated awareness of their future.

Dr Albin: Yeah, that's beautiful. It really is this ongoing negotiation that really requires so much listening, understanding, and then obviously information and expertise about the data that we're presenting and the likelihood outcome, recognizing that there's a lot of uncertainty in all of this. Which, you know, again, this is kind of a 360 talk. At every level there is uncertainty, and that's what makes it so hard.

Dr Holloway: Yeah, you're absolutely right. And actually, even in the article I kind of used the term radical uncertainty as that, no matter how resolvable all this uncertainty is, there will always still remain that radical element of our existence which we have to actually incorporate and be prepared for. And actually, not only of ourselves, but actually for patients and families and helping manage that. Using narratives and credible narratives and kind of ranges of possibilities is the best way to do that in a personalized way.

Dr Albin: Well, this has been a fantastic conversation, and I know that we are running a bit short on time. So, as we wrap up and you think about this topic, are there any key take-home messages that you hope our listeners will walk away with?

Dr Holloway: I think one main emphasis is that despite all the successes we feel we have in neurology, is that we all have to recognize that prognostic uncertainty is just going to increase in the future. But this is going to be for several reasons. One is that, just, the illness uncertainty of all of our great therapies are just going to be creating more uncertainty for the future. And precision medicine is paradoxical, and that actually it creates more uncertainty. So, I think we need to be prepared that we have to manage prognostic uncertainty better, because it's definitely going to increase. And two, it's what I said earlier, is that actually managing prognostic uncertainty is not an end to itself. It's actually helping patients and families adapt to their new and sometimes harsh new reality and actually help them to ultimately get to a place where maybe either their condition is neither dreaded, but actually they can accept it as their new reality and actually achieve some sort of existential well-being and existential health. I think that we have a lot more to emphasize in this area. And for far too long, we've focused on the certainty aspect of our field and not enough on the uncertainty in the world of medicine to help our patients and families.

Dr Albin: And gosh, isn't there just so much uncertainty? And I think this has been beautiful. So, thank you again for coming and sharing your expertise.

Dr Holloway: Thank you very much. It's been a pleasure.

Dr Albin: For all of our listeners out there, this is a truly fantastic article, and I would just like to direct you to going to read the cases because not only do the cases offer a little bit of practical advice, but there's one that's actually sort of a philosophical discussion about, what does it mean to be alive and confront death? There's some beautiful artwork that's featured as well. So this is just a really unique article, and I'm excited for our listeners to have a chance to check it out. So again, today I've been interviewing Dr Bob Holloway about his article on managing prognostic uncertainty in neurologic disease, which appears in the December 2025 Continuum issue on neuropalliative care. Be sure to check out Continuum Audio episodes from this and other issues.

Dr Monteith: This is Dr Teshamae Monteith, Associate Editor of Continuum Audio. If you've enjoyed this episode, you'll love the journal, which is full of in-depth and clinically relevant information important for neurology practitioners. Use the link in the episode notes to learn more and subscribe. AAN members, you can get CME for listening to this interview by completing the evaluation at continpub.com/audioCME. Thank you for listening to Continuum Audio.