Key investing rule: know how you can lose

Wilf sits down with Tony Yoseloff, executive managing member and CIO of Davidson Kempner, to explore how one of the world’s most enduring alternative asset managers navigates today’s markets. Tony, who manages around 40 billion dollars across opportunistic credit and event-driven strategies, shares his macro framework for the current environment, comparing it to both the 1970s and the early 2000s, and discusses how market concentration, rate shocks and a potential Iran-driven oil spike could shape inflation, interest rates, recession risk and the opportunity set in credit. 

Tony also gives his take on the much-debated private credit boom and emerging unwind, and why he sees direct corporate lending as a only mid single-digit return asset class that has been oversold to investors. He thinks default rates have already risen to 5 or 6%, and reflects on which parts of private credit are most exposed, most notably software companies, which often lack hard assets to sell for recovery when things go south.

Tony  reflects on the balance needed between  art and science for event-driven investing, and uses the recent takeover battle surrounding Warner Brothers Discovery as a case study for how to arbitrage specific market events, and why it is attractive to investors to have exposure to investments with zero beta, and unrelated to the rest of their portfolio.

Tony also argues that US investors have become too inward looking, and shares why he thinks India is particularly attractive, especially  for credit where it has been overlooked.

Tony closes with a piece of investing advice he uses internally: always know in advance how and why you might lose money, and size and select positions with that probabilistic reality in mind. 

You can watch the full video on The Master Investor Podcast YouTube channel

And follow @WilfredFrost on X and Linked In

Sponsored by BNY Investments, Interactive Brokers - ibkr.com/masterinvestor and London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). 

The Master Investor Podcast is produced by Paradine Productions, Master Investor Ltd in association with Bird Lime Media.

This podcast is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in any investment activity. It is not a financial promotion as defined under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). The views expressed by the presenter of this podcast are those of the presenter and are provided in the course of journalism. This podcast benefits from the exemption under Article 20 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (FPO), It does not require approval by a person authorised under the FSMA. Generic information, not identifying any specific investment, fund, provider or service, about a class of investments such as shares, bonds, derivatives and cryptoassets, might be provided and/or discussed during this podcast. Such discussion falls within the generic promotions exemption (Article 17 of the FPO). Such discussion is not a financial promotion requiring approval by an authorised person under section 21 of the FSMA. Investing involves risk. You should consult a suitably qualified adviser who can assess your individual circumstances before making any investment decision.