Deterministic vs probabilistic AI in finance

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson sits down with Dan Miller, CFO at RightRev. They unpack why leasing is underused in software, how RevTech emerged, and why revenue recognition may be the next AI battleground. Dan also shares how he evaluates durable growth vs. hypergrowth.

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SPONSORS:

Rillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cj

Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/run

Abacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.ai

Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metrics

Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com

RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com

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LINKS: 

Dan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danmillercpa/

RightRev: https://www.rightrev.com/

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:02:41 Why Operating Experience Matters for CFOs

00:04:08 Defining Durable Growth

00:06:06 Snowflake and Consumption Revenue Complexity

00:10:17 Forecasting in Consumption Models

00:11:29 AI’s Role in Revenue Forecasting

00:12:14 Sponsors — Rillet | Tabs | Abacus AI

00:15:39 Comping Sales in Usage-Based Models

00:18:15 Leasing as a Software Monetization Tool

00:20:47 The CFO’s Role in Sales and GTM

00:22:29 How CFOs Help Close Deals

00:24:14 Rev Tech vs RevOps

00:26:20 Sponsors — Brex | Metronome | RightRev

00:29:40 Where AI Actually Helps Rev Rec

00:31:55 Deterministic vs Probabilistic AI

00:33:05 Why Enterprises Hesitate on AI Agents

00:34:18 Startups vs Incumbents in the AI Race

00:35:13 FOMO, Overfunding, and Market Distortions

00:38:13 CFO Playbooks Without Hypergrowth

00:39:38 Finding PMF as a CFO

00:41:15 Career Advice: Growth vs Shiny Objects

00:42:00 Building the CEO–CFO Relationship

00:42:49 Learning Beyond the Back Office

00:43:22 Lightning Round

00:44:28 Advice to My Younger Self

00:45:09 Finance Tech Stack

00:46:36 Credits