Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, joins The Julia La Roche Show in-studio for a wide-ranging conversation on why the world most investors grew up in is over. Johnson argues that power now matters more than economics — that the old framework of spreadsheets and cash flows is no longer sufficient when supply chains, national security, and geopolitical competition determine outcomes. He breaks down the US-China power competition, the implications of the Iran conflict for energy, food prices, and portfolios, and why he remains in US equities despite the consensus rotation into emerging markets. He also updates his Dollar Milkshake Theory, makes a provocative case that what comes after the American Republic is the American Empire, and explains why stablecoins may be the most underappreciated geopolitical tool the US has right now.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@milkshakespod
Substack: https://research.santiagocapital.com/
0:00 Intro & welcome Brent Johnson
1:05 Current macro picture: the world has changed & power matters more than economics
4:37 Signposts reinforcing the thesis — Trump as symptom, not cause
5:42 What the paradigm shift means for investors — the law of one price is gone
8:25 The high angst/low drawdown paradox — markets only down 10% but everyone's acting like it's 30%
9:43 Conviction vs. confliction — investing for what will happen vs. what you want to happen
13:23 Iran: thinking through the probabilities without the certainty
16:27 The US is still the most powerful country in the world — what that means for portfolios
18:01 Portfolio implications of the Iran scenarios — energy, food prices, the Strait of Hormuz
21:23 It's all about US-China — the prisoner exchange and the technology race
29:16 Where Brent is putting money right now — capital preservation, cash, gold, US equities
31:12 Why he's NOT rotating into emerging markets — the four scenarios framework
34:09 The Dollar Milkshake Theory explained — and how it's held up in 2025-26
39:29 Stablecoins: what Brent got wrong and why they matter more than he thought
46:26 CBDCs vs stablecoins — and the coming conflict between the Fed and the Treasury
50:05 The Fed: cut, hike or hold?
52:48 Japan: the yen trap, JGBs, and why it matters for everyone
54:46 What question nobody asks Brent but should
56:33 What keeps him up at night and what makes him optimistic
57:44 The Roman Republic vs the Roman Empire — is America heading toward empire not collapse
1:01:40 Parting thoughts: find a community of people you trust who disagree with you
