As bombs started to fall on Iran, some Americans cashed in by placing bets on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. These bets paid out hundreds of thousands of dollars to users who almost certainly had inside information about the exact timing of the attacks. Similar bets were made on the assassination of Iran's Ayatollah, turning an act of murder into a commodity.
As these markets have come to embrace acts of violence, often rife with insider trading, Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut has introduced legislation to curb betting on government actions and similar events. His bill, Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions, or the BETS OFF Act, was introduced this past Tuesday.
Today on the show, Matt and David talk to Sen. Murphy about the problem of prediction markets, both political and moral. They also get into the war in Iran, its rudderless trajectory, and the Pentagon’s $200 billion request to continue fighting, perhaps indefinitely. Finally, they discuss how to get out of the morass we have found ourselves in as a country that seems to keep making big, bad decisions, and ask whether Trump and the war are just symptoms of a larger problem plaguing America.
