Ep. 740: A New Mega Collection with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Importance of Probability in Forecasting
I don't see how you can make contingency plans without also attaching probabilities to scenarios. I think we are inevitably going to run into low predictability years in which the very best forecasters are hard pressed to do any better than dart-building chimpanzees. People really do from a very big picture look down 35,000 feet flying, prediction is this isn't certainty. All the fun of politics seems to be drained out all the other side for being stupid or gullible or rigid or anything like that. It becomes a pretty technical matter of let's sit down at the table here and try to calculate and go through the time series.
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